The inside numbers the candidates are looking at
Breaking down the numbers in Pennsylvania:
1. Obama did better in college towns, winning them 60-40. This is consistent with his past performance. Young people still like him best.
2. Obama lost Catholics to Clinton 71-29. This is in stark contrast to how he used to perform in this demographic. An alarming trouncing really in a key constituency.
3. Obama won black votes 92-8. Expected, but astronomic. This Dem primary had a 104 point race gap.
4. Clinton beat Obama in every white working class county in state and won 61 counties to Obama's 6. Bad news for Obama, and perhaps good news for Clinton in a key demographic.
5. Obama now gets the most support from Democrats describing themselves as "very liberal" and does worst among those describing themselves as "moderate" or "somewhat conservative." This is actually to my mind a serious problem for Obama. His appeal to moderates and potential crossover conservatives is fading and he hasn't even yet been criticized for being too liberal. Potentially a major electability problem.
6. Obama won those who do not attend church 56-44. This is good for him, but this category of voters are not an important constituency.
7. Among the religiously observant (as self-described) Obama lost 42-58, despite having won the same group in Maryland eleven weeks earlier by 61-31. This is a huge move in the wrong direction. This problem will be even more pronounced against McCain in a general election, should Obama become the nominee.
From these 7 key demographic stats, I draw two conclusions:
1. The San Francisco flap where Obama sounded rather anti-small town and anti-religious to many hurt him in several important demographics. This impact is not fully reflected in the PA poll numbers because within the Democratic party, many people agree with his perspective, particularly those who are more liberal and share the mindset of his San Francisco audience. This is reflected in his gains in that less valuable demographic. Of course, gains in that Demographic will help him in the primary, may even win him more volunteers and donors, but alienate him to the middle of the electorate. I suspect the same trend would generally be reflected nationally
2. The 104 point race gap and failure to win a single white working class county despite the incredible amount of time and resources he poured in the state shows no matter how long or how frequently he gets out his message, its a no sale to a huge demographic. He is, as of Pennsylvania, starting to fail as the candidate of diversity. He reaches blacks but not working class whites, young voters but not old voters.
A brief glimpse at the remaining contests and where the delegates are:
May 3 - Guam (4 delegates)
May 6 - Indiana (72 delegates) and North Carolina (115 delegates)
May 13 - West Virginia (28 delegates)
May 20 - Oregon (52 delegates) and Kentucky (51 delegates)
June 1 - Puerto Rico (55 delegates)
June 3 - Montana (16 delegates) and South Dakota (15 delegates)
Uncommitted authorized superdelegates (300 delegates)
I use the phrase "authorize superdelegates" because, while most every analyst notes that 2025 delegates are needed to clinch the nomination, that number changes if Florida and Michigan's delegates, stripped by the DNC, are seated at the convention after all. Why is that important? Because Hilary Clinton has pledged to fight for them to be seated at the convention even if she has to take it to the credentials committee. While Clinton trails Obama right now by about 125 delegates, (and Obama remains the man to beat) here's how the delegate math could add up in her favor and get her the nomination:
Guam - even split, no delegate gain
Indiana - even split, perhaps 3-4 delegate swing one way or the other
North Carolina - likely Obama win and plus 12-15 delegates to Obama
West Virginia - likely large Clinton victory and plus 8 delegates to Clinton
Oregon - likely even split, perahps 2-3 delegates for Obama
Kentucky - likely large Clinton victory, plus 7-10 delegates for Clinton
Puerto Rico - likely large Clinton victory, plus 8-11 delegates for Clinton
Montana - unknown but estimate another 1-2 delegates for Clinton
South Dakota - unknown but estimate another 1-2 delegates for Clinton
Given these plausible results of the remaining primaries, Clinton will likely gain another 15-20 delegates on Obama, closing the gap to 105-110 delegates down.
If Florida is seated, as I believe it will be, it may be a plus 40-45 delegate swing for Clinton, bringing her to within 65 delegates.
If Michigan is seated, as it likely will be in some fashion, it may garner Clinton perhaps anywhere from 15-50 delegates, although more likely 15 as either Obama will be given credit for all the undecideds, or they will reduce the value of the delegates through some compromise in the credentialing committee. That brings Clinton to within 50 delegates.
Clinton is reported to have lined up the Michigan superdelegates behind her in large numbers meaning perhaps another 20 delegates swing in her favor if Michigan is seated in any fashion, which it likely will be. That brings her to within 30 delegates.
Clinton is also leading among Florida superdelegates, which could add easily another 25-30 delegates, bringing her practically even.
Then there are still the 300 undecided superdelegates, but if she has the popular vote lead and momentum going into the convention, she could get a majority of those as well.
Then there is also John Edwards, who has 20-25 delegates whom he can help direct towards one or the other candidate.
Then there is also the possibility that any number of delegates may defect from one to the other.
And, even if she does not win outright, if she pulls within 20-25, because of delegates committed to other candidates, neither of them may have the requisite total and all the delegates may be freed for a second vote. In the end, she does not need to catch Obama, only to close the gap another 100 or so, (which she may have already done in very large part behind the scenes).
Unlikely? Perhaps. But there is still a very plausible path to the nomination for her, and I don't see her dropping out before the convention unless the superdelegates go en masse for Obama.
1. Obama did better in college towns, winning them 60-40. This is consistent with his past performance. Young people still like him best.
2. Obama lost Catholics to Clinton 71-29. This is in stark contrast to how he used to perform in this demographic. An alarming trouncing really in a key constituency.
3. Obama won black votes 92-8. Expected, but astronomic. This Dem primary had a 104 point race gap.
4. Clinton beat Obama in every white working class county in state and won 61 counties to Obama's 6. Bad news for Obama, and perhaps good news for Clinton in a key demographic.
5. Obama now gets the most support from Democrats describing themselves as "very liberal" and does worst among those describing themselves as "moderate" or "somewhat conservative." This is actually to my mind a serious problem for Obama. His appeal to moderates and potential crossover conservatives is fading and he hasn't even yet been criticized for being too liberal. Potentially a major electability problem.
6. Obama won those who do not attend church 56-44. This is good for him, but this category of voters are not an important constituency.
7. Among the religiously observant (as self-described) Obama lost 42-58, despite having won the same group in Maryland eleven weeks earlier by 61-31. This is a huge move in the wrong direction. This problem will be even more pronounced against McCain in a general election, should Obama become the nominee.
From these 7 key demographic stats, I draw two conclusions:
1. The San Francisco flap where Obama sounded rather anti-small town and anti-religious to many hurt him in several important demographics. This impact is not fully reflected in the PA poll numbers because within the Democratic party, many people agree with his perspective, particularly those who are more liberal and share the mindset of his San Francisco audience. This is reflected in his gains in that less valuable demographic. Of course, gains in that Demographic will help him in the primary, may even win him more volunteers and donors, but alienate him to the middle of the electorate. I suspect the same trend would generally be reflected nationally
2. The 104 point race gap and failure to win a single white working class county despite the incredible amount of time and resources he poured in the state shows no matter how long or how frequently he gets out his message, its a no sale to a huge demographic. He is, as of Pennsylvania, starting to fail as the candidate of diversity. He reaches blacks but not working class whites, young voters but not old voters.
A brief glimpse at the remaining contests and where the delegates are:
May 3 - Guam (4 delegates)
May 6 - Indiana (72 delegates) and North Carolina (115 delegates)
May 13 - West Virginia (28 delegates)
May 20 - Oregon (52 delegates) and Kentucky (51 delegates)
June 1 - Puerto Rico (55 delegates)
June 3 - Montana (16 delegates) and South Dakota (15 delegates)
Uncommitted authorized superdelegates (300 delegates)
I use the phrase "authorize superdelegates" because, while most every analyst notes that 2025 delegates are needed to clinch the nomination, that number changes if Florida and Michigan's delegates, stripped by the DNC, are seated at the convention after all. Why is that important? Because Hilary Clinton has pledged to fight for them to be seated at the convention even if she has to take it to the credentials committee. While Clinton trails Obama right now by about 125 delegates, (and Obama remains the man to beat) here's how the delegate math could add up in her favor and get her the nomination:
Guam - even split, no delegate gain
Indiana - even split, perhaps 3-4 delegate swing one way or the other
North Carolina - likely Obama win and plus 12-15 delegates to Obama
West Virginia - likely large Clinton victory and plus 8 delegates to Clinton
Oregon - likely even split, perahps 2-3 delegates for Obama
Kentucky - likely large Clinton victory, plus 7-10 delegates for Clinton
Puerto Rico - likely large Clinton victory, plus 8-11 delegates for Clinton
Montana - unknown but estimate another 1-2 delegates for Clinton
South Dakota - unknown but estimate another 1-2 delegates for Clinton
Given these plausible results of the remaining primaries, Clinton will likely gain another 15-20 delegates on Obama, closing the gap to 105-110 delegates down.
If Florida is seated, as I believe it will be, it may be a plus 40-45 delegate swing for Clinton, bringing her to within 65 delegates.
If Michigan is seated, as it likely will be in some fashion, it may garner Clinton perhaps anywhere from 15-50 delegates, although more likely 15 as either Obama will be given credit for all the undecideds, or they will reduce the value of the delegates through some compromise in the credentialing committee. That brings Clinton to within 50 delegates.
Clinton is reported to have lined up the Michigan superdelegates behind her in large numbers meaning perhaps another 20 delegates swing in her favor if Michigan is seated in any fashion, which it likely will be. That brings her to within 30 delegates.
Clinton is also leading among Florida superdelegates, which could add easily another 25-30 delegates, bringing her practically even.
Then there are still the 300 undecided superdelegates, but if she has the popular vote lead and momentum going into the convention, she could get a majority of those as well.
Then there is also John Edwards, who has 20-25 delegates whom he can help direct towards one or the other candidate.
Then there is also the possibility that any number of delegates may defect from one to the other.
And, even if she does not win outright, if she pulls within 20-25, because of delegates committed to other candidates, neither of them may have the requisite total and all the delegates may be freed for a second vote. In the end, she does not need to catch Obama, only to close the gap another 100 or so, (which she may have already done in very large part behind the scenes).
Unlikely? Perhaps. But there is still a very plausible path to the nomination for her, and I don't see her dropping out before the convention unless the superdelegates go en masse for Obama.
