Top ten - Clinton's reasons to hope for victory over Obama
As the GOP nomination has been wrapped up, the Democrats continue in the fight between Clinton and Obama. Both have stepped up their rhetoric and attacks on the other in what has become an increasingly nasty fight. Obama's supporters want the process wrapped up now, while Obama has a 130 delegate lead, more money, and most of his credibility intact during the primary contest. They are increasingly making the argument that no matter what happens in the remaining primary contests, Obama should be the Democratic nominee because he will lead in voter pledged delegates no matter what happens and superdelegates cannot overturn the will of the people. Also, this week he picked up Governor Richardson's endorsement.
Here are ten top reasons Clinton, however, may stand a fighting chance to win the nomination:
1. Financial straits not so dire. Despite the difference in cash on hand (Obama $32 million to Clinton's $11 million at the end of February) this is not so dire for Clinton. $11 million is enough to be getting on with, and Clinton can also borrow heavily since she can repay any debts from the $20 million she has pledged for the general election, which about evens things up. She has been running a tighter ship lately, (spending roughly $1 million a day in February to Obama's $1.5 million per day), so at their current rate she could gain roughly half a million a day on him. Her fundraising capacity is vast, with her husband able to raise a million in a day perhaps. As momentum and polls can change, so can cash flows. Also, between now and April 22nd, there are no states to focus on but Pennsylvania, meaning less cash is needed. 42 states down and 8 to go may mean less electoral opportunites, and it also means less impact from cash advantages.
2. Popularity over popular vote. Current poll averages at www.RealClearPolitics.com, which compiles the average poll numbers from a number of leading pollsters, and www.Rasmussenreports.com, a leading pollster in election day accuracy, has Clinton currently more popular among primary voters than Obama. That alone might be a basis for counterargument to his "must not overturn the will of the people" argument. Further, she can undermine this argument of his by pointing to the fact that she, unlike him, has fought to have the votes of Florida and Michigan count. While it may have been politically convenient for her to do so, it was equally politically convenient for Obama to contend those votes should not be counted.
3. Momentum. Clinton is leading Obama by huge margins in Pennsylvania (+16%) and West Virginia (+28%). If Pennsylvania's primary took place today, Clinton would net a +32 delegate advantage over Obama, bringing his lead perhaps under 100. After that, there are no primaries for 2 weeks in which the flow of superdelegates to her might increase sharply. Obama's lead in North Carolina has all but disappeared, and some polls even have Clinton ahead there now. A draw in North Carolina further strengthens Clinton's momentum, and may increase the number of superdelegates which gravitate toward her.
4. The Big State argument. Clinton beat Obama in most big states, disincluding his home state of Illinois. California (56 electoral votes), New York (31 electoral votes), Texas (30 electoral votes), Florida (27 electoral votes), soon Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes), Ohio (20 electoral votes), Michigan (17 electoral votes), New Jersey (15 electoral votes), as well as others all went her way. While Obama has won more states, this big state argument has its merit as the electoral votes in the states she has won may outnumber his by the time this process is through.
5. The popular vote argument. Although Obama will contend counting Michigan and Florida is unfair, be sure Clinton will base her argument on the votes she garnered there as well. By the time the process is through, Clinton may well outnumber Obama's popular vote total, which could further undermine the Obama "can't overturn the will of the people" argument.
6. The swing state argument. There are 32 states, according to Rasmussen Reports, which are solidly going to vote either for the GOP or Democratic nominee come November. Really, there are 18 states left as battlegrounds, and maybe 11 or 12 in which the winner will really be decided. Key among them include large electoral vote swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. If Clinton wills all three by 15-20%, as she seems poised to do, having already won Florida and Ohio by those margins and leading by such a margin in Pennsylvania, this will be a powerful reason for superdelegates to give her the nomination.
7. Electability at convention time. If this fight goes to the nomination, look for a poll or two from the Clinton camp detailing how the numbers will have changed from how well Obama did in February, especially in general election match-ups against McCain, especially in key swing states against McCain. If Clinton outperforms Obama there, this will be a powerful argument for the superdelegates to unite behind her instead. Even now, she is polling better than Obama against McCain in terms of a national popular vote, the Florida contest, the Ohio contest, and the Pennsylvania contest. If the Democrats lose that trio of states, the GOP will have at least 257 electoral votes, leaving their nominee in a must-win position for nearly every single other swing state in the country, thinly stretching even copious resources. Such a trio of states must be given high consideration by the superdelegates, and there lies Clinton's hope. Her electability advantage will likely be stronger at convention time than it is now, making this a powerful argument in her favor.
8. Scandal. The power of political scandal was demonstrated recently in the Reverend Wright affair. Obama's close relationship over 20 years with his own minister and his refusal to put much distance between the two has seriously damaged Obama's standing, both within the party and in a general election match-up. Obama's standing among independents has plummeted and both liberal and conservative commentators have said the honeymoon period of his candidacy is at an end. Juan Williams of NPR noted that Obama did to himself what Clinton never managed and transformed himself into the "black candidate" with his speech on race.
9. More scandal. While Wright has undermined Obama's right-standing with the American voting populace, it would be wrong to conclude that the bleeding will stop here soon. The power of political scandal favors Clinton down the stretch because unlike Obama, she has already been exhaustively vetted. Neither Obama, nor the GOP, nor anyone else has anything new to pull out of the bag against her. They can pull out the old stuff, yes, but old stuff does not move poll numbers as sharply as new stuff. Obama has only held federal office for 3 years, 2 of which has been spent running for President. The public likes him for the most part, his favorables exceed his unfavorable ratings, but the public understands they do not really know him yet. The public is ready to change its view, and half expects new gossip and dirt to come out on him. The mud slinging contest between Obama and Clinton will continue to advantage Clinton over Obama. Nor does she have an incentive to stop attacking him now. As she attacks, his numbers go down, but those who would consider abandoning support of her because of such attacks have already done so or will not do so. If he does not attack back, the press is all negative against him and he may even look weak. If he does attack back, his "new type of candidate" image as the "positive" candidate is undermined and he loses support. In my opinion, one more big scandal - (of the Eliot Spitzer variety), or three to four more little or moderate scandals (of the Reverend Wright variety), and Obama will be finished. You never know when a scandal might break.
10. The GOP. The GOP wants this fight to go to the convention, and possibly even have chaos reign there. While ultimately one Democrat will come out standing when the dust clears, and the party will unite behind him/her, the GOP would rather see that happen later rather than sooner. As long as the two of them fight, McCain's relative advantage is likely to increase, both in terms of popular support and his fundraising deficiency to Clinton and Obama. The GOP will attack Obama, therefore, to try and draw him down and draw out this fight. They have every incentive to try to start bringing him down now, and they likely will be able to at the least bring down his numbers significantly. While this runs the risk of a Clinton comeback, the GOP will not worry about that unless and until it seems likely to happen. The Pennsylvania primary is not until April 22, so for another four weeks, they will not worry about that, as there will be little to no delegate movement for Clinton until that time.
If Clinton closes on a hot stretch of victories over Obama, she could easily close the gap in delegates between them to about 40-50 going into the convention, or maybe even less. If that happens, and the poll numbers are right so that the leaders see their November chances are better with her, a John Edwards endorsement with his 30-40 delegates and momentum could give her the nod.
Here are ten top reasons Clinton, however, may stand a fighting chance to win the nomination:
1. Financial straits not so dire. Despite the difference in cash on hand (Obama $32 million to Clinton's $11 million at the end of February) this is not so dire for Clinton. $11 million is enough to be getting on with, and Clinton can also borrow heavily since she can repay any debts from the $20 million she has pledged for the general election, which about evens things up. She has been running a tighter ship lately, (spending roughly $1 million a day in February to Obama's $1.5 million per day), so at their current rate she could gain roughly half a million a day on him. Her fundraising capacity is vast, with her husband able to raise a million in a day perhaps. As momentum and polls can change, so can cash flows. Also, between now and April 22nd, there are no states to focus on but Pennsylvania, meaning less cash is needed. 42 states down and 8 to go may mean less electoral opportunites, and it also means less impact from cash advantages.
2. Popularity over popular vote. Current poll averages at www.RealClearPolitics.com, which compiles the average poll numbers from a number of leading pollsters, and www.Rasmussenreports.com, a leading pollster in election day accuracy, has Clinton currently more popular among primary voters than Obama. That alone might be a basis for counterargument to his "must not overturn the will of the people" argument. Further, she can undermine this argument of his by pointing to the fact that she, unlike him, has fought to have the votes of Florida and Michigan count. While it may have been politically convenient for her to do so, it was equally politically convenient for Obama to contend those votes should not be counted.
3. Momentum. Clinton is leading Obama by huge margins in Pennsylvania (+16%) and West Virginia (+28%). If Pennsylvania's primary took place today, Clinton would net a +32 delegate advantage over Obama, bringing his lead perhaps under 100. After that, there are no primaries for 2 weeks in which the flow of superdelegates to her might increase sharply. Obama's lead in North Carolina has all but disappeared, and some polls even have Clinton ahead there now. A draw in North Carolina further strengthens Clinton's momentum, and may increase the number of superdelegates which gravitate toward her.
4. The Big State argument. Clinton beat Obama in most big states, disincluding his home state of Illinois. California (56 electoral votes), New York (31 electoral votes), Texas (30 electoral votes), Florida (27 electoral votes), soon Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes), Ohio (20 electoral votes), Michigan (17 electoral votes), New Jersey (15 electoral votes), as well as others all went her way. While Obama has won more states, this big state argument has its merit as the electoral votes in the states she has won may outnumber his by the time this process is through.
5. The popular vote argument. Although Obama will contend counting Michigan and Florida is unfair, be sure Clinton will base her argument on the votes she garnered there as well. By the time the process is through, Clinton may well outnumber Obama's popular vote total, which could further undermine the Obama "can't overturn the will of the people" argument.
6. The swing state argument. There are 32 states, according to Rasmussen Reports, which are solidly going to vote either for the GOP or Democratic nominee come November. Really, there are 18 states left as battlegrounds, and maybe 11 or 12 in which the winner will really be decided. Key among them include large electoral vote swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. If Clinton wills all three by 15-20%, as she seems poised to do, having already won Florida and Ohio by those margins and leading by such a margin in Pennsylvania, this will be a powerful reason for superdelegates to give her the nomination.
7. Electability at convention time. If this fight goes to the nomination, look for a poll or two from the Clinton camp detailing how the numbers will have changed from how well Obama did in February, especially in general election match-ups against McCain, especially in key swing states against McCain. If Clinton outperforms Obama there, this will be a powerful argument for the superdelegates to unite behind her instead. Even now, she is polling better than Obama against McCain in terms of a national popular vote, the Florida contest, the Ohio contest, and the Pennsylvania contest. If the Democrats lose that trio of states, the GOP will have at least 257 electoral votes, leaving their nominee in a must-win position for nearly every single other swing state in the country, thinly stretching even copious resources. Such a trio of states must be given high consideration by the superdelegates, and there lies Clinton's hope. Her electability advantage will likely be stronger at convention time than it is now, making this a powerful argument in her favor.
8. Scandal. The power of political scandal was demonstrated recently in the Reverend Wright affair. Obama's close relationship over 20 years with his own minister and his refusal to put much distance between the two has seriously damaged Obama's standing, both within the party and in a general election match-up. Obama's standing among independents has plummeted and both liberal and conservative commentators have said the honeymoon period of his candidacy is at an end. Juan Williams of NPR noted that Obama did to himself what Clinton never managed and transformed himself into the "black candidate" with his speech on race.
9. More scandal. While Wright has undermined Obama's right-standing with the American voting populace, it would be wrong to conclude that the bleeding will stop here soon. The power of political scandal favors Clinton down the stretch because unlike Obama, she has already been exhaustively vetted. Neither Obama, nor the GOP, nor anyone else has anything new to pull out of the bag against her. They can pull out the old stuff, yes, but old stuff does not move poll numbers as sharply as new stuff. Obama has only held federal office for 3 years, 2 of which has been spent running for President. The public likes him for the most part, his favorables exceed his unfavorable ratings, but the public understands they do not really know him yet. The public is ready to change its view, and half expects new gossip and dirt to come out on him. The mud slinging contest between Obama and Clinton will continue to advantage Clinton over Obama. Nor does she have an incentive to stop attacking him now. As she attacks, his numbers go down, but those who would consider abandoning support of her because of such attacks have already done so or will not do so. If he does not attack back, the press is all negative against him and he may even look weak. If he does attack back, his "new type of candidate" image as the "positive" candidate is undermined and he loses support. In my opinion, one more big scandal - (of the Eliot Spitzer variety), or three to four more little or moderate scandals (of the Reverend Wright variety), and Obama will be finished. You never know when a scandal might break.
10. The GOP. The GOP wants this fight to go to the convention, and possibly even have chaos reign there. While ultimately one Democrat will come out standing when the dust clears, and the party will unite behind him/her, the GOP would rather see that happen later rather than sooner. As long as the two of them fight, McCain's relative advantage is likely to increase, both in terms of popular support and his fundraising deficiency to Clinton and Obama. The GOP will attack Obama, therefore, to try and draw him down and draw out this fight. They have every incentive to try to start bringing him down now, and they likely will be able to at the least bring down his numbers significantly. While this runs the risk of a Clinton comeback, the GOP will not worry about that unless and until it seems likely to happen. The Pennsylvania primary is not until April 22, so for another four weeks, they will not worry about that, as there will be little to no delegate movement for Clinton until that time.
If Clinton closes on a hot stretch of victories over Obama, she could easily close the gap in delegates between them to about 40-50 going into the convention, or maybe even less. If that happens, and the poll numbers are right so that the leaders see their November chances are better with her, a John Edwards endorsement with his 30-40 delegates and momentum could give her the nod.
