The next 3 months
We now enter a new chapter in primary campaign season with less speculation and more drama.
X-factor potential candidate Bloomberg has announced he will not run for President. Still, the billionaire media tycoon and NY Governor will have an important endorsement to offer for one candidate or the other, but it will not take place in the next three months. Bloomberg sits it out this chapter.
Quadrennial x-factor Ralph Nader has named his vice-presidential candidate, Matt Gonzalez, also of the Green Party. Gonzalez lost the race for mayor of San Francisco a few years ago, but his presence on the ticket should help Nader pick up a greater percentage of the Hispanic vote. Nader plows ahead in his drive to get on the ballot. See http://www.votenader.org/index.html if you are curious about Nader or wish to help him get on the ballot. Nader highlights a dozen important issues on which he will base his campaign. His goal will be to get 5% of the vote and thereby qualify the Green Party for public financing. His issues are advocating for single payer national health insurance, cutting the military budget, focusing on solar rather than nuclear power, an aggressive crackdown on corporate crime/welfare, allowing himself to participate in the Presidential debates, adopting a carbon pollution tax, reversing U.S. middle East policy, impeaching Bush/Cheney, repealing the Taft-Hartley law (which is anti-union), adopting a Wall Street securities speculation tax, ending ballot access obstructionism, and working to end corporate personhood.
Suffice to say, that if he continues to focus on these platforms, he will have far more success peeling off voters from the left rather than the right. His anti-Bush, pro-tax, anti-business, pro-union, anti-large military, anti-war, and perhaps anti-Israel policies would be anathema to most on the right. His opposition to nuclear power will likely not go over well with those concerned with our dependence on foreign oil, and if he chooses to speak about ballot access obstructionism, it will most adversely affect the Democrats, who kept him off many states' ballots in 2004. That said, a 3rd party candidate appeals more to Independents than those affiliated with a party, so he may cut more into McCain's support than Obama or Clinton. Overall though, his presence will probably help McCain in 2008 and perhaps advance 3rd party politics in America. He is not likely to be invited to any Presidential debates with the candidates of the GOP and Democratic parties.
With Huckabee dropping out, McCain's last significant rival is out of the way. Although Ron Paul has not dropped out, McCain no longer needs to worry about any primary campaigns. With the past Tuesday's contests, he has clinched the GOP nomination. This gives McCain a significant advantage. While the Democrats continue to battle it out, he can focus on the general election. McCain will move more to the center where possible, will strive to unify his party, hone his criticisms of the Democratic candidates, fundraise for the general election, campaign in general election swing states, meet with foreign leaders and the troops overseas, etc. He will need this time to build some momentum of his own.
Clinton's victories in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island put her within striking distance of a comeback. She has now won almost every "big state" including Texas, Ohio, New York, California, New Jersey, Florida, and Michigan. Those seven states alone have nearly 200 electoral votes. While Obama has won roughly twice as many states, they are very close in the popular vote. The Democratic party is also now talking about a "revote" in Florida and Michigan, two states that went heavily for Clinton but gave her no delegates due to the Democratic state parties in those states moving up their primaries in violation of DNC rules. It is likely that if these two revote, and Clinton wins Pennsylvania as she did Ohio, (which I predict she will based on PA Gov. Ed Rendell's support, her momentum, and the similarity of OH and PA demographics) she not only will be within 30 or so delegates of Obama, but we will see superdelegates floating more to her than Obama. This would happen for three reasons. First, it would indicate she has momentum and a streak going. Second, she will have won more big states and probably a higher amount in the popular vote. Third, she will have bested Obama in the triumvirate of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, the three largest swing states.
Clinton's newfound viability, therefore, and the fact that there are no more significant primaries before April 22nd, suggest that this battle will wage on at least that long. Obama will not be able to clinch the nomination without heavy superdelegate help, same as Clinton, though he has a mathematical edge. This likely will not be resolved before June, when the Democratic primaries all take place, and then perhaps not until the convention. What then, can we anticipate in the campaign strategies of these two candidates?
First, expect Clinton to walk a fine line between going negative on Obama, which has helped her, and at the same time creating a talking point that they are having a very civil discourse. Best case scenario for her is to beat Obama and then make him her veep.
Second, Obama also will focus on positive campaigning, since if he goes negative, it will tarnish his image far more than Clinton, who is already viewed as having gone negative.
Third, expect Howard Dean and other leading Democrat voices to promote civil discourse as the rules for this rumble, with the hope of the two candidates joining onto one ticket, or at least not splitting the party.
Fourth, expect John McCain to attack both Democrats, particularly on their stances on the Iraq war, empty rhetoric, cost of their campaign promises, ethics issues, and perhaps one or two other key talking points.
Fifth, expect the Democratic candidates, but Obama especially, to make the argument that they are most likely to beat McCain and trumpet the electability advanatage shown in the polls as they unfold.
Sixth, both Democrats will continue to contrast themselves with Bush and perhaps now McCain more than each other. This will likely benefit Clinton, as she has lost the contrast between her and Obama as the "agent of change." If they are both contrasting themselves with Bush and/or McCain, she may be able to moot Obama's advantage on this point.
Seventh, McCain will in this period generate a short list of potential veep candidates. As he does so, expect many leading Republicans to join in the attack on Clinton and Obama. This will keep McCain from appearing very negative and accomplish the same aims. They will attack the Democrats on an array of issues, which will mobilize and unify the GOP. This they must also do to counterbalance the inevitable dominance the Democrats will have in press coverage given the unresolved status of their primary.
Eighth, as McCain attacks from the right, Nader will attack from the left, perhaps outflanking Obama on the war issue, a sizeable and critical constituency.
Ninth, the media will be sensitive to virulence from Obama or Clinton or either candidate playing the race/gender card. Both candidates will be more heavily incentivized to focus on the issues, so we may see some more in depth discussion on the issues than we have seen thus far. The pace from here is slower, as the primaries are more spread out, allowing each candidate to outdo each other with arguments rather than the soundbites that a rapid primary season forces onto candidates.
Tenth, expect some drama between Clinton and Obama on what to do with Florida and Michigan. Putting them in play greatly advantages Clinton, and Obama will not let that happen without a fight.
Also, see http://www.270towin.com/ for an electoral map in 2008, or www.rasmussenreports.com to see updates on the electoral college projections based on polling, market data, and historical trends. After all the sound and fury on the campaign trail, which Democrat will face McCain in November, due to the crucial role of the superdelegates, (who are not bound to vote for a candidate based on any primary but wish to see a ticket likely to win in November and who have due to the math the final decision in which Democrat will win their nomination), will depend on which one seems most electable to the superdelegates looking at web sites like these.
X-factor potential candidate Bloomberg has announced he will not run for President. Still, the billionaire media tycoon and NY Governor will have an important endorsement to offer for one candidate or the other, but it will not take place in the next three months. Bloomberg sits it out this chapter.
Quadrennial x-factor Ralph Nader has named his vice-presidential candidate, Matt Gonzalez, also of the Green Party. Gonzalez lost the race for mayor of San Francisco a few years ago, but his presence on the ticket should help Nader pick up a greater percentage of the Hispanic vote. Nader plows ahead in his drive to get on the ballot. See http://www.votenader.org/index.html if you are curious about Nader or wish to help him get on the ballot. Nader highlights a dozen important issues on which he will base his campaign. His goal will be to get 5% of the vote and thereby qualify the Green Party for public financing. His issues are advocating for single payer national health insurance, cutting the military budget, focusing on solar rather than nuclear power, an aggressive crackdown on corporate crime/welfare, allowing himself to participate in the Presidential debates, adopting a carbon pollution tax, reversing U.S. middle East policy, impeaching Bush/Cheney, repealing the Taft-Hartley law (which is anti-union), adopting a Wall Street securities speculation tax, ending ballot access obstructionism, and working to end corporate personhood.
Suffice to say, that if he continues to focus on these platforms, he will have far more success peeling off voters from the left rather than the right. His anti-Bush, pro-tax, anti-business, pro-union, anti-large military, anti-war, and perhaps anti-Israel policies would be anathema to most on the right. His opposition to nuclear power will likely not go over well with those concerned with our dependence on foreign oil, and if he chooses to speak about ballot access obstructionism, it will most adversely affect the Democrats, who kept him off many states' ballots in 2004. That said, a 3rd party candidate appeals more to Independents than those affiliated with a party, so he may cut more into McCain's support than Obama or Clinton. Overall though, his presence will probably help McCain in 2008 and perhaps advance 3rd party politics in America. He is not likely to be invited to any Presidential debates with the candidates of the GOP and Democratic parties.
With Huckabee dropping out, McCain's last significant rival is out of the way. Although Ron Paul has not dropped out, McCain no longer needs to worry about any primary campaigns. With the past Tuesday's contests, he has clinched the GOP nomination. This gives McCain a significant advantage. While the Democrats continue to battle it out, he can focus on the general election. McCain will move more to the center where possible, will strive to unify his party, hone his criticisms of the Democratic candidates, fundraise for the general election, campaign in general election swing states, meet with foreign leaders and the troops overseas, etc. He will need this time to build some momentum of his own.
Clinton's victories in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island put her within striking distance of a comeback. She has now won almost every "big state" including Texas, Ohio, New York, California, New Jersey, Florida, and Michigan. Those seven states alone have nearly 200 electoral votes. While Obama has won roughly twice as many states, they are very close in the popular vote. The Democratic party is also now talking about a "revote" in Florida and Michigan, two states that went heavily for Clinton but gave her no delegates due to the Democratic state parties in those states moving up their primaries in violation of DNC rules. It is likely that if these two revote, and Clinton wins Pennsylvania as she did Ohio, (which I predict she will based on PA Gov. Ed Rendell's support, her momentum, and the similarity of OH and PA demographics) she not only will be within 30 or so delegates of Obama, but we will see superdelegates floating more to her than Obama. This would happen for three reasons. First, it would indicate she has momentum and a streak going. Second, she will have won more big states and probably a higher amount in the popular vote. Third, she will have bested Obama in the triumvirate of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, the three largest swing states.
Clinton's newfound viability, therefore, and the fact that there are no more significant primaries before April 22nd, suggest that this battle will wage on at least that long. Obama will not be able to clinch the nomination without heavy superdelegate help, same as Clinton, though he has a mathematical edge. This likely will not be resolved before June, when the Democratic primaries all take place, and then perhaps not until the convention. What then, can we anticipate in the campaign strategies of these two candidates?
First, expect Clinton to walk a fine line between going negative on Obama, which has helped her, and at the same time creating a talking point that they are having a very civil discourse. Best case scenario for her is to beat Obama and then make him her veep.
Second, Obama also will focus on positive campaigning, since if he goes negative, it will tarnish his image far more than Clinton, who is already viewed as having gone negative.
Third, expect Howard Dean and other leading Democrat voices to promote civil discourse as the rules for this rumble, with the hope of the two candidates joining onto one ticket, or at least not splitting the party.
Fourth, expect John McCain to attack both Democrats, particularly on their stances on the Iraq war, empty rhetoric, cost of their campaign promises, ethics issues, and perhaps one or two other key talking points.
Fifth, expect the Democratic candidates, but Obama especially, to make the argument that they are most likely to beat McCain and trumpet the electability advanatage shown in the polls as they unfold.
Sixth, both Democrats will continue to contrast themselves with Bush and perhaps now McCain more than each other. This will likely benefit Clinton, as she has lost the contrast between her and Obama as the "agent of change." If they are both contrasting themselves with Bush and/or McCain, she may be able to moot Obama's advantage on this point.
Seventh, McCain will in this period generate a short list of potential veep candidates. As he does so, expect many leading Republicans to join in the attack on Clinton and Obama. This will keep McCain from appearing very negative and accomplish the same aims. They will attack the Democrats on an array of issues, which will mobilize and unify the GOP. This they must also do to counterbalance the inevitable dominance the Democrats will have in press coverage given the unresolved status of their primary.
Eighth, as McCain attacks from the right, Nader will attack from the left, perhaps outflanking Obama on the war issue, a sizeable and critical constituency.
Ninth, the media will be sensitive to virulence from Obama or Clinton or either candidate playing the race/gender card. Both candidates will be more heavily incentivized to focus on the issues, so we may see some more in depth discussion on the issues than we have seen thus far. The pace from here is slower, as the primaries are more spread out, allowing each candidate to outdo each other with arguments rather than the soundbites that a rapid primary season forces onto candidates.
Tenth, expect some drama between Clinton and Obama on what to do with Florida and Michigan. Putting them in play greatly advantages Clinton, and Obama will not let that happen without a fight.
Also, see http://www.270towin.com/ for an electoral map in 2008, or www.rasmussenreports.com to see updates on the electoral college projections based on polling, market data, and historical trends. After all the sound and fury on the campaign trail, which Democrat will face McCain in November, due to the crucial role of the superdelegates, (who are not bound to vote for a candidate based on any primary but wish to see a ticket likely to win in November and who have due to the math the final decision in which Democrat will win their nomination), will depend on which one seems most electable to the superdelegates looking at web sites like these.
