Predicting February 6th standings
As the Democrats vote today in South Carolina, it looks like it will be a large Obama victory. Clinton will win the Florida primary on Tuesday in a landslide, but the Democratic party, due to a scheduling violation has awarded 0 delegates to the winner of the Florida primary. Heading into the Super Tuesday, Obama must hope his delegate count gets close enough to Clinton to even things up a bit. Most likely, a strong Clinton performance will bury Obama, and a strong Obama performance will keep him alive.
On the GOP side, it appears that either McCain or Romney will win Florida. Proceeding on the following assumptions, I make the following estimates of how the vote totals will break down on February 5th:
Assumptions:
1 - Romney narrowly wins Florida, and they are close enough so that neither is given too much extra momentum before the February 5th Super Tuesday, but Romney picks up a little bit of steam. McCain loses a point or two nationally.
2 - Romney does better than McCain in states with closed primaries, that is, states where independents and Democrats are not allowed to vote for the GOP candidate for nominee.
3 - McCain does better than Romney in open states where all can vote.
4 - Huckabee does better in the South, particularly where there are large evangelical populations, with leads resembling his numbers in Georgia and Missouri.
5 - Giuliani's Florida loss causes him to drop out or become a non-factor in the February 5th elections. (If he wins Florida though, I say he wins New York and New Jersey and takes 15% of the rest nationally on February 5th, putting Romney 1st, Giuliani a distant 2nd, McCain and Huckabee a close 3rd and 4th. A Giuliani win hurts McCain the most as he could get enough momentum to steal the winner take all delegates of NY and NJ).
6 - Though Ron Paul is in the race, he will only garner 4-5% of the vote, and less in the south and midwest.
7 - These are rough estimates.
8 - Each candidate wins their own state, does better in regions near their state.
9 - Regional politics will heavily influence voter choice.
10 - Huckabee will be hampered by his 3rd place status, except in the South.
State Delegates McCain Romney Huckabee
GA 72 14 12 25
IL 70 21 14 16
ME 21 6 9 4
MO 58 0 0 58
TN 55 15 13 22
AZ 53 53 0 0
NJ 52 52 0 0
AL 48 15 11 17
CO 46 12 20 13
MA 43 16 17 4
MN 41 17 12 11
OK 41 9 12 18
UT 36 0 36 0
AR 34 8 8 15
CT 30 0 30 0
WV 30 10 9 9
AK 29 8 10 9
ND 26 7 11 8
MT 25 0 0 25
DE 18 0 18 0
NY 101 101 0 0
CA 173 59 42 29
Current total 72 118 80
Florida's 1/29 0 57 0
2/6 Sum 495 459 365
States Won 9 12 8
This would put McCain in the lead, Romney close behind, Huckabee within striking distance but a long shot, and eliminate Giuliani and Paul. Given the remaining states, my money with such results would be on Romney to win the nomination, all else being equal. If Giuliani fares better than expected or McCain worse than expected in Florida, Romney should do even better. One thing seems certain - while February 5th could seal the deal for Clinton, no GOP candidate seems likely to dominate after 2/5.
On the GOP side, it appears that either McCain or Romney will win Florida. Proceeding on the following assumptions, I make the following estimates of how the vote totals will break down on February 5th:
Assumptions:
1 - Romney narrowly wins Florida, and they are close enough so that neither is given too much extra momentum before the February 5th Super Tuesday, but Romney picks up a little bit of steam. McCain loses a point or two nationally.
2 - Romney does better than McCain in states with closed primaries, that is, states where independents and Democrats are not allowed to vote for the GOP candidate for nominee.
3 - McCain does better than Romney in open states where all can vote.
4 - Huckabee does better in the South, particularly where there are large evangelical populations, with leads resembling his numbers in Georgia and Missouri.
5 - Giuliani's Florida loss causes him to drop out or become a non-factor in the February 5th elections. (If he wins Florida though, I say he wins New York and New Jersey and takes 15% of the rest nationally on February 5th, putting Romney 1st, Giuliani a distant 2nd, McCain and Huckabee a close 3rd and 4th. A Giuliani win hurts McCain the most as he could get enough momentum to steal the winner take all delegates of NY and NJ).
6 - Though Ron Paul is in the race, he will only garner 4-5% of the vote, and less in the south and midwest.
7 - These are rough estimates.
8 - Each candidate wins their own state, does better in regions near their state.
9 - Regional politics will heavily influence voter choice.
10 - Huckabee will be hampered by his 3rd place status, except in the South.
State Delegates McCain Romney Huckabee
GA 72 14 12 25
IL 70 21 14 16
ME 21 6 9 4
MO 58 0 0 58
TN 55 15 13 22
AZ 53 53 0 0
NJ 52 52 0 0
AL 48 15 11 17
CO 46 12 20 13
MA 43 16 17 4
MN 41 17 12 11
OK 41 9 12 18
UT 36 0 36 0
AR 34 8 8 15
CT 30 0 30 0
WV 30 10 9 9
AK 29 8 10 9
ND 26 7 11 8
MT 25 0 0 25
DE 18 0 18 0
NY 101 101 0 0
CA 173 59 42 29
Current total 72 118 80
Florida's 1/29 0 57 0
2/6 Sum 495 459 365
States Won 9 12 8
This would put McCain in the lead, Romney close behind, Huckabee within striking distance but a long shot, and eliminate Giuliani and Paul. Given the remaining states, my money with such results would be on Romney to win the nomination, all else being equal. If Giuliani fares better than expected or McCain worse than expected in Florida, Romney should do even better. One thing seems certain - while February 5th could seal the deal for Clinton, no GOP candidate seems likely to dominate after 2/5.
