Romney on top in Florida, Kucinich leaves race
The Democratic field has narrowed to four candidates, as Dennis Kucinich exits the race. He will likely endorse Barack Obama. The next to exit could be Mike Gravel, a state senator in Alaska who has not approached 1% in any poll, but if logic dictated his exit, he would have left a long time ago. Edwards could also conceivably exit, but will likely not for some time. Giuliani may exit after losing Florida, but will likely not until February 6th or 7th, just to see if he has a chance in the somewhat unpredictable Super Tuesday.
Top tier candidates at this point:
Clinton (D)
Huckabee (R)
McCain (R)
Obama (D)
Romney (R)
Second tier candidates:
Edwards (D)
Giuliani (R)
Paul (R)
Third tier candidates remaining:
Gravel (D)
Huckabee, Obama, and Paul could easily be notched one lower, however, and will be if they don't improve over the next couple of weeks.
The big news item, however, is Mitt Romney taking the lead in Florida after Thompson's exit. Thompson's supporters, largely a group that liked him because of his conservative orthodoxy, have eschewed McCain's maverick reputation, Huckabee's populist economic policies, and Giuliani's repugnance to social conservatives for Romney, who like Thompson, tried to paint himself as a "true conservative" unlike the others in the race. This theme has paid off as he has gone from a 3-4 point Florida deficit behind McCain to a 3-4 point advantage. With a key debate coming up, its likely between McCain and Romney. Giuliani is now a good 8 points off the pace in Florida, where he has laid all his chips, and has had to stop campaigning to go elsewhere to raise funds. Huckabee has basically ceded Florida and is focusing on other Southern states such as Georgia, which will vote on February 5th. Given his limited funds and the warchest it would take to outpace McCain or Romney in Florida, this is likely a good strategy, though perhaps not a winning one, for Huckabee. Thompson's exit, therefore, most damages McCain, makes Giuliani's political death in Florida more certain, and
Top tier candidates at this point:
Clinton (D)
Huckabee (R)
McCain (R)
Obama (D)
Romney (R)
Second tier candidates:
Edwards (D)
Giuliani (R)
Paul (R)
Third tier candidates remaining:
Gravel (D)
Huckabee, Obama, and Paul could easily be notched one lower, however, and will be if they don't improve over the next couple of weeks.
The big news item, however, is Mitt Romney taking the lead in Florida after Thompson's exit. Thompson's supporters, largely a group that liked him because of his conservative orthodoxy, have eschewed McCain's maverick reputation, Huckabee's populist economic policies, and Giuliani's repugnance to social conservatives for Romney, who like Thompson, tried to paint himself as a "true conservative" unlike the others in the race. This theme has paid off as he has gone from a 3-4 point Florida deficit behind McCain to a 3-4 point advantage. With a key debate coming up, its likely between McCain and Romney. Giuliani is now a good 8 points off the pace in Florida, where he has laid all his chips, and has had to stop campaigning to go elsewhere to raise funds. Huckabee has basically ceded Florida and is focusing on other Southern states such as Georgia, which will vote on February 5th. Given his limited funds and the warchest it would take to outpace McCain or Romney in Florida, this is likely a good strategy, though perhaps not a winning one, for Huckabee. Thompson's exit, therefore, most damages McCain, makes Giuliani's political death in Florida more certain, and
