New Hampshire aftermath
In the aftermath of McCain and Clinton's victories in New Hampshire, candidates turn their eyes towards South Carolina, except for Democrat candidate Bill Richardson, the race's lone Hispanic, who has dropped out after failing to rise above 3-5% in the polls.
On the Democrat side, Richardson's departure narrows the field to five candidates - Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Kucinich, and Gravel. While neither Kucinich nor Gravel will garner 1%, Edwards lags a distant third behind Obama and Clinton, who are starting to take the gloves off. Clinton's teary-eyed answer to the "how do you do it?" question seems to have pushed her over the top in New Hampshire despite polls indicating she would be a heavy loser to Obama. Kucinich has demanded a recount. If he has 100 times the votes they said he got, he may get third place. Polls again indicate Obama will far outdistance Clinton in South Carolina, but we'll have to wait and see to be sure. Meanwhile former Democratic nominee of the 2004 race, Senator John Kerry, has endorsed Senator Obama, despite Senator Edwards having been his running mate in the last race. As both Bill and Hilary Clinton and their surrogates unload an attack barrage on Senator Obama, the black community is speaking out against the Clintons. For now, its Clinton 35%, Obama 33%, and Edwards 15% nationally.
On the GOP side, McCain's win has propelled him in many polls to the top of the field. His edge over Romney in New Hampshire has McCain at 22%, Huckabee and Romney at 20% each, Thompson at 11%, Giuliani down to 9%, and Paul at 3%, (Hunter is under 1%). Although Thompson had the worst showing in New Hampshire among these Republicans, he was not the biggest loser. Neither is Romney the biggest loser, as despite his disappointing second place finish, he leads in the delegate count and is just 2 points off the national lead. Huckabee's low expectations in New Hampshire but third place finish may have even helped him, though McCain's victory has knocked Huckabee back to 2nd in South Carolina and 2nd nationally. He will need a strong performance in South Carolina. Ron Paul's 8% was good for his campaign, and continues the attention he is getting, although he has no chance of winning nor of being selected as a veep candidate. Giuliani's 4th place finish in New Hampshire, barely edging Ron Paul, right after 6th in Iowa, has taken him from once lead candidate down into single digits nationally.
The reason he is the biggest loser of the New Hampshire caucus is that Giuliani's remaining support comes from three groups - the libertarian wing of the GOP, those who believe he is the anti-terrorist answer because of 9/11, and those who think he manages the economy well. The liberatarian wing now though is deserting him for McCain, whose maverick stances on various issues, including social issues make McCain second only to Giuliani on their GOP list. Since Giuliani is in 5th and McCain in 1st, they will support their second choice in many cases before their first. Those who believe he was strong on the war on terror may also leave him for McCain who has vowed to pursue Bin Laden to the gates of hell. Both McCain and Huckabee are veterans, unlike Giuliani, so over the long run they will probably be seen as more credible on the war on terror. Plus Giuliani has a "swift boat" esque group in the NY Firefighters Union who will lambast his 9/11 credentials, on which he has centered his campaign. They will have both the ammunition and the funding to bring him down on that score. His financial governance of NYC supporters will be his last bastion of support, from which he will try to stage a comeback, but his time for doing so is running out. If he does not win South Carolina, Michigan, or Florida, he will be done. Still, if he wins Florida and then California, he will have a chance.
On the Democrat side, Richardson's departure narrows the field to five candidates - Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Kucinich, and Gravel. While neither Kucinich nor Gravel will garner 1%, Edwards lags a distant third behind Obama and Clinton, who are starting to take the gloves off. Clinton's teary-eyed answer to the "how do you do it?" question seems to have pushed her over the top in New Hampshire despite polls indicating she would be a heavy loser to Obama. Kucinich has demanded a recount. If he has 100 times the votes they said he got, he may get third place. Polls again indicate Obama will far outdistance Clinton in South Carolina, but we'll have to wait and see to be sure. Meanwhile former Democratic nominee of the 2004 race, Senator John Kerry, has endorsed Senator Obama, despite Senator Edwards having been his running mate in the last race. As both Bill and Hilary Clinton and their surrogates unload an attack barrage on Senator Obama, the black community is speaking out against the Clintons. For now, its Clinton 35%, Obama 33%, and Edwards 15% nationally.
On the GOP side, McCain's win has propelled him in many polls to the top of the field. His edge over Romney in New Hampshire has McCain at 22%, Huckabee and Romney at 20% each, Thompson at 11%, Giuliani down to 9%, and Paul at 3%, (Hunter is under 1%). Although Thompson had the worst showing in New Hampshire among these Republicans, he was not the biggest loser. Neither is Romney the biggest loser, as despite his disappointing second place finish, he leads in the delegate count and is just 2 points off the national lead. Huckabee's low expectations in New Hampshire but third place finish may have even helped him, though McCain's victory has knocked Huckabee back to 2nd in South Carolina and 2nd nationally. He will need a strong performance in South Carolina. Ron Paul's 8% was good for his campaign, and continues the attention he is getting, although he has no chance of winning nor of being selected as a veep candidate. Giuliani's 4th place finish in New Hampshire, barely edging Ron Paul, right after 6th in Iowa, has taken him from once lead candidate down into single digits nationally.
The reason he is the biggest loser of the New Hampshire caucus is that Giuliani's remaining support comes from three groups - the libertarian wing of the GOP, those who believe he is the anti-terrorist answer because of 9/11, and those who think he manages the economy well. The liberatarian wing now though is deserting him for McCain, whose maverick stances on various issues, including social issues make McCain second only to Giuliani on their GOP list. Since Giuliani is in 5th and McCain in 1st, they will support their second choice in many cases before their first. Those who believe he was strong on the war on terror may also leave him for McCain who has vowed to pursue Bin Laden to the gates of hell. Both McCain and Huckabee are veterans, unlike Giuliani, so over the long run they will probably be seen as more credible on the war on terror. Plus Giuliani has a "swift boat" esque group in the NY Firefighters Union who will lambast his 9/11 credentials, on which he has centered his campaign. They will have both the ammunition and the funding to bring him down on that score. His financial governance of NYC supporters will be his last bastion of support, from which he will try to stage a comeback, but his time for doing so is running out. If he does not win South Carolina, Michigan, or Florida, he will be done. Still, if he wins Florida and then California, he will have a chance.
