Huckabee and Obama win Iowa
Mike Huckabee (R) and Barack Obama (D) have won the first primary of the Presidential campaign season in Iowa.
On the GOP side, the projection is Huckabee in 1st with 34%, Romney in 2nd with 25%, and Fred Thompson in 3rd with 13%. The consequences of this will be a boost for Huckabee nationally, including likely some increased funding for his "shoestring" campaign. Romney's 2nd place finish is very much respectable, but will likely not improve his numbers much since he spent a ton of money in Iowa. Fred Thompson's 3rd place keeps him alive in the race, but he still needs something to jumpstart his campaign again. McCain's 4th place finish, also with 13%, may slow his momentum somewhat, but since he has been more focused on New Hampshire, his real test will be there in a few days. In 5th is GOP anti-war candidate Ron Paul with 10%, a surprisingly successful finish for him which should elevate him to "second tier" status. Rounding out the field were Giuliani in 6th place with a mere 4%, and dead last was Duncan Hunter with 1%. This paltry finish for Giuliani erases any status he may have enjoyed as the frontrunner some months ago and will likely hurt him nationally in the polls. Still, his saving grace may be that he did not really try much to win Iowa and preferred to focus on Florida and New Hampshire. A poor finish in New Hampshire, however, would be a severe blow to his campaign. Hunter meanwhile has lagged as a third tier candidate for a long time. At this point, it would appear his campaign is nearing an end. Nevertheless, he could still be a legitimate voice on the campaign trail as his name often surfaces as a possible vice presidential candidate.
While Rasmussen Reports only had Huckabee as a 1 point favorite going into Iowa, this 9 point victory shows his ability to mobilize his supporters with limited resources. He was helped largely by the Christian vote, the women's vote, and perhaps this night before the election appearance on the Leno show. http://www.nbc.com/The_Tonight_Show_with_Jay_Leno/video/episodes.shtml
On the Democrats' side, it was Barack Obama soundly defeating Hilary Clinton and John Edwards. Obama garnered 38% of the Democrats' support, Edwards finished 2nd with 30%, and Clinton in 3rd with 29%. Richardson finished 4th with 2%, and Biden with 1%. Dodd, Gravel, and Kucinich all failed to achieve 1%, and it would appear that all three of their campaigns are at an end. Biden's campaign also appears near its end. Richardson, while doing rather poorly in Iowa, still is a name often circulated as a potential vice presidential candidate, so he will likely stay in the race. CNN is reporting that Biden and Dodd are withdrawing from the race. Both of these two long stalwarts in the U.S. Senate have more years in the Senate than all the Democrats still in the race combined have years of public service. The trend on the Democrats' side seems to be toward the younger Senators. Obama, the winner, has 3 years in the Senate, Edwards in 2nd has 5, and Clinton in 3rd has 7, (plus of course 8 years as the First Lady). Still, this victory should give a big boost to Obama, who still trails Clinton by a large margin in national polls. Clinton perhaps is the biggest loser on the Democrats side tonight as her image as the inevitable nominee is tarnished. She poured tons of resources into Iowa and mobilized approximately 7,000 campaign workers to drive voters to the polls, (in 2004 John Kerry had only 300 in Iowa). The Democratic race is still hers to lose, but if Obama defeats her in New Hampshire, things could start to get serious. Edwards second place finish is a leg up for his campaign, but he needs a good seven or eight more legs up before he's in a good spot in the national race.
Obama's victory can be attributed both to the enormous resources he spent in Iowa, and his message of "change" resonating with primary voters. Clinton's team made several mistakes as well, including pouring tons of resources into a state they failed to win, having Bill Clinton prop up the legitimacy of Edwards campaign in an attempt to defuse Obama but which really ultimately sank Hilary Clinton from 2nd to 3rd, and publicly stating Iowa's unimportance while trying to win over Iowa voters.
5 days until the New Hampshire primary.
On the GOP side, the projection is Huckabee in 1st with 34%, Romney in 2nd with 25%, and Fred Thompson in 3rd with 13%. The consequences of this will be a boost for Huckabee nationally, including likely some increased funding for his "shoestring" campaign. Romney's 2nd place finish is very much respectable, but will likely not improve his numbers much since he spent a ton of money in Iowa. Fred Thompson's 3rd place keeps him alive in the race, but he still needs something to jumpstart his campaign again. McCain's 4th place finish, also with 13%, may slow his momentum somewhat, but since he has been more focused on New Hampshire, his real test will be there in a few days. In 5th is GOP anti-war candidate Ron Paul with 10%, a surprisingly successful finish for him which should elevate him to "second tier" status. Rounding out the field were Giuliani in 6th place with a mere 4%, and dead last was Duncan Hunter with 1%. This paltry finish for Giuliani erases any status he may have enjoyed as the frontrunner some months ago and will likely hurt him nationally in the polls. Still, his saving grace may be that he did not really try much to win Iowa and preferred to focus on Florida and New Hampshire. A poor finish in New Hampshire, however, would be a severe blow to his campaign. Hunter meanwhile has lagged as a third tier candidate for a long time. At this point, it would appear his campaign is nearing an end. Nevertheless, he could still be a legitimate voice on the campaign trail as his name often surfaces as a possible vice presidential candidate.
While Rasmussen Reports only had Huckabee as a 1 point favorite going into Iowa, this 9 point victory shows his ability to mobilize his supporters with limited resources. He was helped largely by the Christian vote, the women's vote, and perhaps this night before the election appearance on the Leno show. http://www.nbc.com/The_Tonight_Show_with_Jay_Leno/video/episodes.shtml
On the Democrats' side, it was Barack Obama soundly defeating Hilary Clinton and John Edwards. Obama garnered 38% of the Democrats' support, Edwards finished 2nd with 30%, and Clinton in 3rd with 29%. Richardson finished 4th with 2%, and Biden with 1%. Dodd, Gravel, and Kucinich all failed to achieve 1%, and it would appear that all three of their campaigns are at an end. Biden's campaign also appears near its end. Richardson, while doing rather poorly in Iowa, still is a name often circulated as a potential vice presidential candidate, so he will likely stay in the race. CNN is reporting that Biden and Dodd are withdrawing from the race. Both of these two long stalwarts in the U.S. Senate have more years in the Senate than all the Democrats still in the race combined have years of public service. The trend on the Democrats' side seems to be toward the younger Senators. Obama, the winner, has 3 years in the Senate, Edwards in 2nd has 5, and Clinton in 3rd has 7, (plus of course 8 years as the First Lady). Still, this victory should give a big boost to Obama, who still trails Clinton by a large margin in national polls. Clinton perhaps is the biggest loser on the Democrats side tonight as her image as the inevitable nominee is tarnished. She poured tons of resources into Iowa and mobilized approximately 7,000 campaign workers to drive voters to the polls, (in 2004 John Kerry had only 300 in Iowa). The Democratic race is still hers to lose, but if Obama defeats her in New Hampshire, things could start to get serious. Edwards second place finish is a leg up for his campaign, but he needs a good seven or eight more legs up before he's in a good spot in the national race.
Obama's victory can be attributed both to the enormous resources he spent in Iowa, and his message of "change" resonating with primary voters. Clinton's team made several mistakes as well, including pouring tons of resources into a state they failed to win, having Bill Clinton prop up the legitimacy of Edwards campaign in an attempt to defuse Obama but which really ultimately sank Hilary Clinton from 2nd to 3rd, and publicly stating Iowa's unimportance while trying to win over Iowa voters.
5 days until the New Hampshire primary.
