Wednesday, January 30, 2008

McCain and Clinton win Florida, Giuliani and Edwards out

As McCain, bolstered by an endorsement from Florida Governor Crist (R), edged Romney in Florida, he moved to the clear frontrunner in the GOP race.  Although Romney still leads by two points on Rasmussen Reports, McCain now has the momentum and will likely win enough of the big states such as California, New York and New Jersey on February 5 to keep him in 1st place.  Rasmussen Reports, a consistently reliable and precise polling outfit, has McCain defeating both Clinton and Obama in a popular vote.  This "electability" factor will boost him further going into February 5th states, as Romney shows a deficit against both of the remaining Democratic candidates.

Giuliani finally acknowledged his defeat, dropping out after only garnering 14% in Florida, a state he spent all his time campaigning in.  Not even remotely close to 2nd place in Florida, and running 4th behind McCain, Romney and Huckabee, Giuliani stepped out before falling below Ron Paul.  Paul is hanging in there with his 4-8%, but he could only win if McCain, Romney and Huckabee decide to bow out.  Romney has vowed to fight on and when they take the stage for the GOP debate in 10 minutes time, the field will be thinned to 4.  If Huckabee's Southern strategy does not payoff on February 5th, he may bow out as well, although he has promised to play "all 9 innings of the ballgame."

On the Democrats' side, Edwards has dropped out, and now has an interesting role as potential "kingmaker."  He will not endorse Clinton without looking like a complete fool, but he has not yet endorsed Obama.  The only reason for this to my mind is he is holding out on that endorsement to see whether Obama might promise him the veep slot as Kerry did 4 years ago, or if perhaps Clinton or Obama might promise to make him Attorney General.  Most of Edwards' voters will probably go to Obama anyways, but it will take a few more days of polling to be sure.

Obama has picked up the endorsements of the Kennedy clan, a powerful addition to his image of as the "hope" and "change" candidate, invoking comparisons to JFK himself. 

Racial and gender politics continue to erupt from the undercurrent between these two candidates, both of which play into Clinton's hands.  Racial politics generally marginalize Obama, while the women card, a greater 50% of the voting population, and 55-60% of the Democrats' primary voting population perhaps, behooves Clinton's use of playing this card.  Both realize that such politics hurts their party, and Clinton finds herself in the unfortunate position of being the one to rely on them.  In the end, that may well backfire on her.  The Democratic field is now down to 3, with Mike Gravel bizarrely not having yet dropped out, unless his withdrawal was so insignificant that it went entirely unreported by any news source I've seen.

Though Clinton won Florida, she gets zero delegates for her troubles, although now she is trying to challenge that decision of the Democratic National Committee.  Perhaps tapping into the irony of the Democratic party refusing to count votes from Florida, she may have some success.  Still, Obama has quite an uphill climb if he is going to unseat Hilary Clinton. 

Last, assuming Clinton and McCain win the nomination, who would their veeps be?  Clinton's short list would probably include Obama, Richardson, Mark Warner, and Evan Bayh, in that order of preference.  Given the war between Clinton and Obama however, she may go to Richardson in an effort to take the Hispanic vote, which McCain would otherwise capitalize on, likely winning the key swing state of Florida.  If she goes with Richardson though, she risks alienating the black community, who are an essential voting bloc for a Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.  Warner would help her carry Virginia, which will likely be a swing state this year as well, as it is far more purple than either in the 2000 or 2004 elections.  Still McCain may otherwise take the state given its large military population and their high level of support for McCain. 
Posted by at 22:07:35 | Permanent Link | Comments (0) |

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Predicting February 6th standings

As the Democrats vote today in South Carolina, it looks like it will be a large Obama victory.  Clinton will win the Florida primary on Tuesday in a landslide, but the Democratic party, due to a scheduling violation has awarded 0 delegates to the winner of the Florida primary.  Heading into the Super Tuesday, Obama must hope his delegate count gets close enough to Clinton to even things up a bit.  Most likely, a strong Clinton performance will bury Obama, and a strong Obama performance will keep him alive.

On the GOP side, it appears that either McCain or Romney will win Florida.  Proceeding on the following assumptions, I make the following estimates of how the vote totals will break down on February 5th:

Assumptions:

1 - Romney narrowly wins Florida, and they are close enough so that neither is given too much extra momentum before the February 5th Super Tuesday, but Romney picks up a little bit of steam.  McCain loses a point or two nationally.

2 - Romney does better than McCain in states with closed primaries, that is, states where independents and Democrats are not allowed to vote for the GOP candidate for nominee.

3 - McCain does better than Romney in open states where all can vote.

4 - Huckabee does better in the South, particularly where there are large evangelical populations, with leads resembling his numbers in Georgia and Missouri.

5 - Giuliani's Florida loss causes him to drop out or become a non-factor in the February 5th elections.  (If he wins Florida though, I say he wins New York and New Jersey and takes 15% of the rest nationally on February 5th, putting Romney 1st, Giuliani a distant 2nd, McCain and Huckabee a close 3rd and 4th.  A Giuliani win hurts McCain the most as he could get enough momentum to steal the winner take all delegates of NY and NJ).

6 - Though Ron Paul is in the race, he will only garner 4-5% of the vote, and less in the south and midwest.

7 - These are rough estimates.

8  - Each candidate wins their own state, does better in regions near their state.

9 - Regional politics will heavily influence voter choice.

10 - Huckabee will be hampered by his 3rd place status, except in the South.

State  Delegates McCain  Romney  Huckabee

GA      72              14         12          25
IL        70              21         14         16
ME      21              6           9            4
MO     58              0           0            58
TN      55              15        13           22
AZ      53              53        0              0
NJ       52             52        0              0
AL       48            15         11            17
CO     46             12         20           13
MA     43              16        17            4
MN     41              17        12          11
OK     41              9          12           18
UT      36            0            36           0
AR      34           8            8             15
CT      30            0           30             0
WV     30           10          9               9
AK      29             8         10              9
ND     26             7          11             8
MT     25             0          0              25
DE      18            0         18             0
NY     101          101         0              0
CA     173          59         42            29
Current  total   72         118          80
Florida's 1/29   0           57             0

2/6 Sum          495        459          365

States Won        9           12            8

This would put McCain in the lead, Romney close behind, Huckabee within striking distance but a long shot, and eliminate Giuliani and Paul.  Given the remaining states, my money with such results would be on Romney to win the nomination, all else being equal.  If Giuliani fares better than expected or McCain worse than expected in Florida, Romney should do even better.  One thing seems certain - while February 5th could seal the deal for Clinton, no GOP candidate seems likely to dominate after 2/5.
Posted by at 16:02:07 | Permanent Link | Comments (0) |

Friday, January 25, 2008

Romney on top in Florida, Kucinich leaves race

The Democratic field has narrowed to four candidates, as Dennis Kucinich exits the race.  He will likely endorse Barack Obama.  The next to exit could be Mike Gravel, a state senator in Alaska who has not approached 1% in any poll, but if logic dictated his exit, he would have left a long time ago.  Edwards could also conceivably exit, but will likely not for some time.  Giuliani may exit after losing Florida, but will likely not until February 6th or 7th, just to see if he has a chance in the somewhat unpredictable Super Tuesday.

Top tier candidates at this point:

Clinton (D)
Huckabee (R)
McCain (R)
Obama (D)
Romney (R)

Second tier candidates:

Edwards (D)
Giuliani (R)
Paul (R)

Third tier candidates remaining:

Gravel (D)

Huckabee, Obama, and Paul could easily be notched one lower, however, and will be if they don't improve over the next couple of weeks.

The big news item, however, is Mitt Romney taking the lead in Florida after Thompson's exit.  Thompson's supporters, largely a group that liked him because of his conservative orthodoxy, have eschewed McCain's maverick reputation, Huckabee's populist economic policies, and Giuliani's repugnance to social conservatives for Romney, who like Thompson, tried to paint himself as a "true conservative" unlike the others in the race.  This theme has paid off as he has gone from a 3-4 point Florida deficit behind McCain to a 3-4 point advantage.  With a key debate coming up, its likely between McCain and Romney.  Giuliani is now a good 8 points off the pace in Florida, where he has laid all his chips, and has had to stop campaigning to go elsewhere to raise funds.  Huckabee has basically ceded Florida and is focusing on other Southern states such as Georgia, which will vote on February 5th.  Given his limited funds and the warchest it would take to outpace McCain or Romney in Florida, this is likely a good strategy, though perhaps not a winning one, for Huckabee.  Thompson's exit, therefore, most damages McCain, makes Giuliani's political death in Florida more certain, and
Posted by at 00:04:04 | Permanent Link | Comments (0) |

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

GOP field thins, Clinton v. Obama, primaries wage on, and 3rd party candidacies

GOP candidates Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter have dropped out of the race for President of the United States.  This thins the GOP field to five candidates - McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani, and Paul.  Thompson had still been pulling down a good 10-13% in most polls, so who he endorses, and who his voters decide to switch to at this point, could be the next big momentum swing in the race.  Odds are that Huckabee and Romney stand to benefit the most, although all the candidates should benefit from Thompson's withdrawal as his supporters search for their next best candidate.  Thompson will most likely endorse McCain, the frontrunner, due to Thompson's spats with Romney and Huckabee in debates and on the campaign trail, the declining campaign and social issue differences of Giuliani, and the radically different stances Paul and Thompson have on foreign policy.  Thompson may still be viewed as a strong potential veep selection, and could pair well on a McCain ticket, another reason for him to endorse McCain.  Duncan Hunter could be a strong veep candidate for McCain, Romney, or Huckabee, but my guess is he will also endorse McCain as they have much in common, particularly the fact that they are the only two who have children serving in Iraq.  McCain's campaign has also stated there is no chance Lieberman would be the veep on his ticket.

Clinton and Obama continue to oscillate between "playing nicely" and taking shots at each other on the trail.  While Obama continues to gain momentum, Clinton continues to win each contest after Iowa.  That could change a bit on Friday, as Obama will likely take South Carolina.  Most likely, however, Clinton's huge lead in Florida will stem Obama's momentum heading into the February 5th Super Tuesday, where many states vote, and Clinton's victories will pile up to an insurmountable extent.  Nevertheless, a large Obama victory in SC, and a close showing in FL could give him enough credibility to do well enough in February 5th states to keep going.  The longer his campaign stays alive, the more likely he will be to overtake her.

For the GOP, all eyes turn to Florida where, until recently, a four way tie existed between McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani.  McCain has now pulled ahead, however, and he will likely win the state, carrying his momentum into the February 5th primaries.  Second place is close between Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani.  Paul will not win, but if he can finish 4th out of the remaining 5, he will do better than expected and stay in it a while longer.  If Giuliani does not win Florida, he is finished.  No longer able to pay his campaign staff and having pulled his campaign out of every state but Florida, he has staked his campaign there.  While not a bad strategy considering his politics would never win out in a GOP primary in Iowa or South Carolina, his poor showing in New Hampshire and Michigan showed his candidacy could well be on its last leg of life.  Others who may well be the next to drop out include Kucinich and Gravel, two Democrats who cannot garner more than 1% of Democrats between them, and are even less likely to win over independent or GOP votes.  Kucinich occasionally gets a few points in some primaries, but his claim of seeing a UFO and stances staunchly different than the party cause him to be not so much of a dark horse as a dead horse.  Edwards, now relegated to "kingmaker" status, could drop out now while it might do some good to endorse Obama, whereas in two weeks it may be too late to slow Clinton down.  Most likely though, he will not drop out for at least a month or two.  Huckabee must soon expand his support beyond just evangelicals and strengthen his populist appeal or face political demise.  Romney will be around for quite some time given his fortune and current level of support.

Nader is again exploring a 3rd party candidacy and, after having been kept off the ballots by Democrats in many states legally challenging his right to be on the ballot, may have an axe to grind with them.  He would likely do better than the past two times, but could not win.  Billionaire Bloomberg could also make a run and will likely decide in March as Unity Party 08 continues to try to draft him.  He is exploring the possibility actively.  Last, Gore could be an interesting x factor if he chooses to run, but will most likely wait until 2012 or 2016 to throw his hat in the ring.  A Bloomberg-Gore ticket could be a very powerful combination, but Gore is unlikely to run as a veep again.

Posted by at 20:29:45 | Permanent Link | Comments (1) |

Monday, January 14, 2008

Michigan primary tomorrow

With tomorrow being the Michigan primary, there is much on the line, and it appears to be a two candidate race to win the state on each side. 

On the GOP side, Mitt Romney has poured all of his resources, diverting them from other states such as South Carolina and Florida.  He leads McCain 26% - 25%.  After that, Huckabee pulls in third at 17%, Thompson in 4th at 9%, Paul up to 5th at 8%, and Giuliani in 6th at 6%.  Although some have speculated that this is a make or break moment for Romney, I would disagree.  Even if he loses, he still will have been in the top 2 through the first 4 states, the only candidate among the GOP to do so.  A win for John McCain would enable him to carry the momentum he won in New Hampshire and possibly run the table through South Carolina, Florida, and then the February 5th state primaries.  Huckabee focuses on South Carolina, where he trails McCain by 3 points, Thompson focuses on trying to redefine his candidacy with some new life, and Giuliani focuses on Florida.

In South Carolina, it looks to be a McCain victory, as he leads with 28%, Huckabee in 2nd with 19%, Romney in 3rd with 17%, Thompson 4th with 16%, and Paul and Giuliani tied for 5th with 5%.  Also on the 19th, is the Nevada primary where recent polls put it at McCain 22%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 16%, Romney 15% and Thompson 11%. 

In Florida, its almost a 4 way tie with McCain, Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani all within 2 points of the lead, and Thompson about 7 points off the pace.

On the Democrats' side, its all Clinton and Obama, as Edwards fades even more into the status of third horse in a two horse race, despite suggesting Clinton should quit the race just a week and a half ago.  The racial divide between the two candidates is striking, where Clinton holds a 14 point advantage among whites whereas Obama holds a 23 point edge among black voters, a 37 point race gap.  There is not much of a gender gap between the two.  Bill Clinton is trying to do damage control after the Clintons have been widely attacked of inappropriate racial politics.  Hilary Clinton has campaigned in Nevada where she has tried to win over the Hispanic vote.  Obama leads in South Carolina but Clinton crushes him in Florida and California.  Consequently, Obama must win South Carolina.  Michigan's delegates for the Democrats are not apportioned according to a popular primary vote, and roughly 55% of them have already given their vote to Clinton.
Posted by at 19:24:10 | Permanent Link | Comments (0) |

Friday, January 11, 2008

New Hampshire aftermath

In the aftermath of McCain and Clinton's victories in New Hampshire, candidates turn their eyes towards South Carolina, except for Democrat candidate Bill Richardson, the race's lone Hispanic, who has dropped out after failing to rise above 3-5% in the polls. 

On the Democrat side, Richardson's departure narrows the field to five candidates - Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Kucinich, and Gravel.  While neither Kucinich nor Gravel will garner 1%, Edwards lags a distant third behind Obama and Clinton, who are starting to take the gloves off.  Clinton's teary-eyed answer to the "how do you do it?" question seems to have pushed her over the top in New Hampshire despite polls indicating she would be a heavy loser to Obama.  Kucinich has demanded a recount.  If he has 100 times the votes they said he got, he may get third place.  Polls again indicate Obama will far outdistance Clinton in South Carolina, but we'll have to wait and see to be sure.  Meanwhile former Democratic nominee of the 2004 race, Senator John Kerry, has endorsed Senator Obama, despite Senator Edwards having been his running mate in the last race.  As both Bill and Hilary Clinton and their surrogates unload an attack barrage on Senator Obama, the black community is speaking out against the Clintons.  For now, its Clinton 35%, Obama 33%, and Edwards 15% nationally.

On the GOP side, McCain's win has propelled him in many polls to the top of the field.  His edge over Romney in New Hampshire has McCain at 22%, Huckabee and Romney at 20% each, Thompson at 11%, Giuliani down to 9%, and Paul at 3%, (Hunter is under 1%).  Although Thompson had the worst showing in New Hampshire among these Republicans, he was not the biggest loser.  Neither is Romney the biggest loser, as despite his disappointing second place finish, he leads in the delegate count and is just 2 points off the national lead.  Huckabee's low expectations in New Hampshire but third place finish may have even helped him, though McCain's victory has knocked Huckabee back to 2nd in South Carolina and 2nd nationally.  He will need a strong performance in South Carolina.  Ron Paul's 8% was good for his campaign, and continues the attention he is getting, although he has no chance of winning nor of being selected as a veep candidate.  Giuliani's 4th place finish in New Hampshire, barely edging Ron Paul, right after 6th in Iowa, has taken him from once lead candidate down into single digits nationally. 

The reason he is the biggest loser of the New Hampshire caucus is that Giuliani's remaining support comes from three groups - the libertarian wing of the GOP, those who believe he is the anti-terrorist answer because of 9/11, and those who think he manages the economy well.  The liberatarian wing now though is deserting him for McCain, whose maverick stances on various issues, including social issues make McCain second only to Giuliani on their GOP list.  Since Giuliani is in 5th and McCain in 1st, they will support their second choice in many cases before their first.  Those who believe he was strong on the war on terror may also leave him for McCain who has vowed to pursue Bin Laden to the gates of hell.  Both McCain and Huckabee are veterans, unlike Giuliani, so over the long run they will probably be seen as more credible on the war on terror.  Plus Giuliani has a "swift boat" esque group in the NY Firefighters Union who will lambast his 9/11 credentials, on which he has centered his campaign.  They will have both the ammunition and the funding to bring him down on that score.  His financial governance of NYC supporters will be his last bastion of support, from which he will try to stage a comeback, but his time for doing so is running out.  If he does not win South Carolina, Michigan, or Florida, he will be done.  Still, if he wins Florida and then California, he will have a chance.
Posted by at 22:04:02 | Permanent Link | Comments (0) |

Monday, January 07, 2008

Bloomberg, debates, and Clinton falling

Amid the interest in campaign season is a very interesting question - what happens if Michael Bloomberg runs for President.  The indication is that he may decide by March.  As an independent with a fortune exceeding $10,000,000,000.00, there is no doubt he could easily run a campaign with more funding than both parties' combined, even if he only pours a tenth of his fortune into the campaign.  The number of registered voters associated neither with the Democrats nor Republicans is nearing 30%, which means a centrist campaign on the Unity08 ticket could have some flourish.  The GOP candidates debated again last night, this time on Fox, with Romney lashing out back against the other candidates.  I have not yet seen a full transcript or video of this debate. 

Clinton is receiving sharp criticism for this video http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4097366 in which she got teary eyed in response to a softball question as to "how do you do it?"  The segment includes Clinton stating she is tired, that it is very personal to her, and that she deeply believes in what she is fighting for.  Although her answer starts well, it degenerates from there.  Clinton has gotten called out in the past by rival candidates and Republicans for having her aides get people to ask pre-set questions as if they are random questions from the crowd, and this type of question makes one wonder.  She is likely trying to reshape her image quickly after Obama has clearly outflanked her as the "candidate of change," a popular theme on the left as all three leading Democrats have repeatedly sought to portray themselves under that label.  Polls have Obama surpassing Clinton in the next several primary states of New Hampshire and South Carolina by huge margins.  Obama is leading in New Hampshire by 38% to 28%, and in South Carolina by 42% to 30% according to Rasmussenreports.com.  Nationally, Clinton still leads Obama by a few points, but all the momentum is on his side, and that appears likely to continue as she loses her bandwagon supporters to Obama. 

On the GOP side, its McCain edging Romney right now in New Hampshire, 32% to 31%.  After that, Mike Huckabee is in 3rd with 11%, Giuliani 4th with 10%, and Ron Paul in 5th with 8%.  Fred Thompson garners a paltry 3% in New Hampshire.  Nationally, its Huckabee with the lead at 20%, McCain with 19%, Giuliani 17%, Romney 15%, and Thompson with 11%.  Ron Paul is still 2nd tier with 3%, despite doing better than anticipated in the early primary states. 

There are two GOP matches in New Hampshire really.  McCain and Romney both seek the gold and the national boost that winning the state will bring them and have large amounts of institutional support and resources dedicated to this particular contest.  Equally interesting though is how Huckabee, Giuliani, and Ron Paul fare in New Hampshire.  Paul's low tax, anti-war platforms are reasonably popular there, and is only a few points behind Huckabee and Giuliani there.  If Huckabee beats Giuliani in New Hampshire, a state Giuliani as a northeastern Republican is expected to do better in, he will have a leg up on Giuliani in Florida where Giuliani leads Huckabee by a couple of points.  If Huckabee beats Giuliani and Paul finishes in between them, that would be even worse for Giuliani as finishing 5th or 6th in each of the first two major primaries will further impact his national numbers and chances of winning Florida on January 29th.  Although Huckabee has nothing to prove in New Hampshire, especially after winning Iowa and leading in South Carolina and nationally too, there are some serious stakes for him as well between finishing 3rd and 5th in this state.  His key will be to appear likeable and strong on economic issues as the populist bandwagon he is generating will not fly as high in New Hampshire.
Posted by at 20:09:42 | Permanent Link | Comments (0) |

Sunday, January 06, 2008

GOP candidates speak


While I have not yet seen a video of the debate, realclearpolitics.com has this http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/ link to many of the candidates speeches on various issues or on this morning's talk shows. 
Posted by at 23:32:23 | Permanent Link | Comments (0) |

Dems debate, and Wyoming votes

The much overlooked and unanticipated Wyoming GOP primary has taken place with only 3 GOP candidates receiving votes.  CNN has reported that Romney has won Wyoming with 67%, Thompson 2nd with 25%, and Duncan Hunter 3rd with 8%.  They will each get a proportional number of Wyoming's delegates to the GOP convention.  Most of the candidates are focused on the upcoming primaries in New Hampshire, then South Carolina, then the many states on the February 5th "Super Tuesday."

The Democrats held a debate yesterday, which was a positive move for all their candidates, as they each get exposure for their ideas and comments as the public's eye turns towards politics and the upcoming primaries.  See  http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4091841 for the story.  It appears that yet again Obama has outshined Clinton in a debate with Clinton seeming to lose her composure.  Of added interest this time is that Edwards jumped to Obama's side in calling Clinton part of the establishment resisting change, a comment in lock step with Obama's theme.  This may well be a first attempt or a floated interest by Edwards at the V.P. slot on Obama's ticket, and will only add to Obama's momentum.  Richardson criticized all the other Democrats for not maintaining a decorum of civility in the debate, an unusual move for someone whose potential is limited to being one of their V.P.'s.  Still, with Edwards and Obama joining in their criticism of Clinton, this may be seen as an attempt to deflect criticism at her.  It is still likely that Richardson's spot in this race is to aim for being Clinton's V.P. candidate. 

In New Hampshire, Rasmussen Reports is forecasting an Obama victory with Obama polling at 37%, Clinton at 27%, Edwards with 19%, and Richardson with 8%.  If Obama wins, that will further eradicate Clinton's support as the inevitable Democratic nominee and increase his chances in the national race.  Although the full effects of the Iowa caucus results are not yet reflected in recent polling, Rasmussen (who uses three day averages) has Clinton in 1st nationally at 38%, Obama in 2nd at 25%, and Edwards in 3rd at 20%.  An Obama win in New Hampshire would be a big one-two punch against Clinton's campaign.

On the GOP side, it is going to be down to McCain or Romney in New Hampshire.  McCain has 31% and Romney 26%.  Ron Paul has 14%, Huckabee 11%, Giuliani has 8%, and Thompson 5%.  Despite Huckabee's win in Iowa, New Hampshire voters are rather different than Iowa voters and he is unlikely to rise much higher there.  Ron Paul's 14% is largely due to his anti-tax and anti-war platforms which are consistent with the popular beliefs of New Hampshire voters.  Giuliani's paltry 8% indicates a furthering faltering of his campaign, as he was expected to do well in a northeastern state, but looks to finish in 5th, give or take a spot.  Not cracking the top 4 or 5 in either Iowa or New Hampshire will likely diminish his national standing further.  Thompson's 5% will likely hurt him as well nationally.  Although his third place finish in Iowa was respectable, 6th in New Hampshire is not.   Both McCain and Romney have campaigned heavily in New Hampshire, with McCain receiving the help of former Democrat and now Independent Senator Joe Lieberman, who some speculate as a potential running mate on McCain's ticket, already something of an independent type voter himself.  Whichever of the two win will get a national boost, although 2nd place will not break either of them.

Posted by at 12:16:01 | Permanent Link | Comments (0) |

Friday, January 04, 2008

Huckabee and Obama win Iowa

Mike Huckabee (R) and Barack Obama (D) have won the first primary of the Presidential campaign season in Iowa. 

On the GOP side, the projection is Huckabee in 1st with 34%, Romney in 2nd with 25%, and Fred Thompson in 3rd with 13%.  The consequences of this will be a boost for Huckabee nationally, including likely some increased funding for his "shoestring" campaign.  Romney's 2nd place finish is very much respectable, but will likely not improve his numbers much since he spent a ton of money in Iowa.  Fred Thompson's 3rd place keeps him alive in the race, but he still needs something to jumpstart his campaign again.  McCain's 4th place finish, also with 13%, may slow his momentum somewhat, but since he has been more focused on New Hampshire, his real test will be there in a few days.  In 5th is GOP anti-war candidate Ron Paul with 10%, a surprisingly successful finish for him which should elevate him to "second tier" status.  Rounding out the field were Giuliani in 6th place with a mere 4%, and dead last was Duncan Hunter with 1%.  This paltry finish for Giuliani erases any status he may have enjoyed as the frontrunner some months ago and will likely hurt him nationally in the polls.  Still, his saving grace may be that he did not really try much to win Iowa and preferred to focus on Florida and New Hampshire.  A poor finish in New Hampshire, however, would be a severe blow to his campaign.  Hunter meanwhile has lagged as a third tier candidate for a long time.  At this point, it would appear his campaign is nearing an end.  Nevertheless, he could still be a legitimate voice on the campaign trail as his name often surfaces as a possible vice presidential candidate. 

While Rasmussen Reports only had Huckabee as a 1 point favorite going into Iowa, this 9 point victory shows his ability to mobilize his supporters with limited resources.  He was helped largely by the Christian vote, the women's vote, and perhaps this night before the election appearance on the Leno show.  http://www.nbc.com/The_Tonight_Show_with_Jay_Leno/video/episodes.shtml

On the Democrats' side, it was Barack Obama soundly defeating Hilary Clinton and John Edwards.  Obama garnered 38% of the Democrats' support, Edwards finished 2nd with 30%, and Clinton in 3rd with 29%.  Richardson finished 4th with 2%, and Biden with 1%.  Dodd, Gravel, and Kucinich all failed to achieve 1%, and it would appear that all three of their campaigns are at an end.  Biden's campaign also appears near its end.  Richardson, while doing rather poorly in Iowa, still is a name often circulated as a potential vice presidential candidate, so he will likely stay in the race.  CNN is reporting that Biden and Dodd are withdrawing from the race.  Both of these two long stalwarts in the U.S. Senate have more years in the Senate than all the Democrats still in the race combined have years of public service.  The trend on the Democrats' side seems to be toward the younger Senators.  Obama, the winner, has 3 years in the Senate, Edwards in 2nd has 5, and Clinton in 3rd has 7, (plus of course 8 years as the First Lady).  Still, this victory should give a big boost to Obama, who still trails Clinton by a large margin in national polls.  Clinton perhaps is the biggest loser on the Democrats side tonight as her image as the inevitable nominee is tarnished.  She poured tons of resources into Iowa and mobilized approximately 7,000 campaign workers to drive voters to the polls, (in 2004 John Kerry had only 300 in Iowa).  The Democratic race is still hers to lose, but if Obama defeats her in New Hampshire, things could start to get serious.  Edwards second place finish is a leg up for his campaign, but he needs a good seven or eight more legs up before he's in a good spot in the national race. 

Obama's victory can be attributed both to the enormous resources he spent in Iowa, and his message of "change" resonating with primary voters.  Clinton's team made several mistakes as well, including pouring tons of resources into a state they failed to win, having Bill Clinton prop up the legitimacy of Edwards campaign in an attempt to defuse Obama but which really ultimately sank Hilary Clinton from 2nd to 3rd, and publicly stating Iowa's unimportance while trying to win over Iowa voters.

5 days until the New Hampshire primary.
Posted by at 01:47:23 | Permanent Link | Comments (0) |
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