08 Presidential Candidates, Political Analysis

First, McCain’s team’s recent emphasis on “Jobs for America” and his economic plan are described in detail by the campaign here:

See www.JohnMcCain.com/economicbriefing if link does not load.

Next, McCain’s team released a new ad called “Love” which again hearkens back to defining the character of McCain as a war hero and a patriot who has sacrificed for and loves his country.  While the ad will not hurt him, it still lacks the “pathos” emotional connection of his earlier ads.  Frankly, they should replace whoever is coordinating the ads for this campaign and involve someone who understands how ads can utilize an emotional appeal.  I give this ad a C-:

http://www.johnmccain.com/videolanding/love.htm

Except for the most determined McCain haters, even his opponents already recognize that he is a war hero who sacrificed greatly for his country.  Independents are also already aware of it.  The 60s images and pop cultural references have got to stop quite simply, or he will start to look like a cultural ignoramus.  The sound quality on the ad is poor, the static images, the absence of engaging people in emotional images, the overabundance of images that make him look like a CEO, the inexplicable failure to have the candidate himself narrate in favor of a dull voice with no emotional investment in the message, the overuse of symbols such as the bald eagle (not even a soaring one or even a picture of one but an image of one) make this ad poor in quality.  He already looks plenty presidential, but that is simply not enough.

If McCain’s ads do not start demonstrating his care for them on bread and butter issues, the American public will conclude he does not.  The ads should have a conversational feel to the viewer.  McCain may never be the charismatic speaker type, but anybody who has genuine care on an issue or driving passion can communicate that and frame it in a way that could resonate with others who are looking for a leader who understands them and cares about them.  By contrast to Obama, McCain is losing on a huge block of voters who respond to such appeals and, at least as yet, is missing opportunities for significant inroads against Obama.

Obama meanwhile campaigned in Virginia, devoting the day to reaching out to women.  His speech is here:

 

Obama’s speech was not bad but he frankly looks tired and not invested in this message for women.  Obama’s problem is the opposite of McCain’s.  While McCain is short on “pathos”, Obama is short on “logos.”  Voters looking for concrete measures, plans, and commitments are left feeling these comments are overladen with rhetoric and thin on something tangible they can point to that Obama would do if elected.

McCain’s outreach to women is summarized here - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2008/Jul/11/like_obama__mccain_devotes_a_day_to_women_voters.html.  This is, however, a demographic in which he needs serious inroads.  Men love McCain more than Obama.  But the same female voters that Obama was weak on during the primaries are, to put it most precisely, defaulting in large margins to Obama.  What McCain could do to make huge inroads in this demographic, and what in my humble estimation he should do, is to name a female Vice President candidate.  This would be especially powerful if he does so at the convention right after Obama nominates a male.  (If Obama picks a female, the Clintonistas will pivot to Obama and McCain should pick a different veep, preferrably a Hispanic like Senator Martinez, or another minority such as Gov. Jindal).  Among the female candidates out there now, the clear favorite that is getting surprisingly little discussion is Gov. Palin of Alaska. 

Palin has a number of things going for her:

1.  She has executive experience as a Governor.
2.  She brings youth to the ticket.  Further, as a female, her youth does not contrast nastily with McCain’s age as would a young male on the ticket.
3.  She is the mother of 5, a true working mother success story who women will know is someone who can identify with and understand their struggles.
4.  She would unite the cultural conservatives to the ticket, and generate honest to goodness enthusiasm in that critical part of the GOP base.  Not only is she Pro-Life, pro-2nd Amendment, etc. but her life story makes her a poster child hero for the movement as well.  Her youngest child, and 5th has down’s syndrome, but she never wavered towards abortion.  She could be the most credible Pro-Life advocate perhaps ever.
5.  She could help unite fiscal conservatives as well.  She has a strong record of pro-growth policies, reducing taxes, and cutting excess government spending.
6.  The Clintonistas are itching still for a women to get to the White House.  The “unity events” Obama and Clinton have held have a forced and thick with tension air about them.  The Clintonistas were passionate about not her but what she represented - the breakthrough the highest profile glass ceiling in the world.  Her victory would have felt like their victory.  They may pivot to other issues if there are no females on the tickets, but they still feel like they lost.  Given the chance to recapture that feeling and fight that fight, they would welcome the second chance.  From a very pragmatic standpoint, when Clinton withdrew and endorsed Obama, Obama went from a 5 point underdog to an 8 point favorite.  At least 1/4 to 1/3 of the entire Democratic party I believe could be open to switching to the McCain/Palin ticket.  It could be McCain’s only way to a landslide.  And, if it was a landslide, she could become the most prominent female voice in the world.
7.  If McCain won with her on the veep side, this would look an awful lot like a potential 16 year ticket for the GOP.
8.  People love her.  Not only is she a former beauty queen and sports star, but she has an approval rating that is nothing shy of astronomical at 84%.  Contrast that with someone Obama might pick from the Congress (which one poll last week put the Congressional approval rating at 9%) and there is a clear favorite.
9.  She is the epitomy of a government ethics champion with a Hollywood quality story line.  Opposing corruption within her own party, she fought the good fight against corrupt interests that went as high as the Governor’s office.  While the old boys’ club ignored her message and ostrasized her, she resigned in protest.  Shortly thereafter, she was vindicated as the wave of anti-unethical voters and scandals swept her political enemies into disrepute and she overtake an incumbent Governor in a primary battle, and then went on to win the nomination.
10.  She is strong on energy issues, as a consistent supporter for drilling, offshore drilling, and other alternative energy proposals, and her leadership led to the construction of a major new pipeline in Alaska that has greatly increased the prosperity of the people there.  The country as a whole, especially given the current energy crisis and mounting public opinion demanding independence from foreign oil are going to like that in her.
11.  She is a Washington outsider that can outflank Obama’s “new politics” message.  What voters have become skeptical and/or disillusioned about in him, she exemplifies.
12.  On a very basic level, her selection gives McCain supporters “cultural cover” to become active.  I believe a huge portion of people are going to be reluctant to be the ones with a McCain/(any other old white guy) bumper sticker or yard sign.  Very few people who level the critiques against that are going to feel comfortable dispiriting those who are supporting the ticket that would create the historic first female Vice President. 
13.  She has no serious disagreements with McCain on any important issue. 
14.  She mirrors his reputation as a maverick, as an ethics reformer, as strong on spending restraint, strong on independence from foreign oil, could easily be harmonized to his strength on foreign policy, and simultaneously reaches major demographics where he has no traction.
15.  It would put the Democrats into a horrible Catch-22.  Along would come this human interest superstory who could infatuate the media interest which translates into superstardom and teflon from complaints.  The Democrats then must either let her importance works its magic or try to take her down with attacks.  If they try to attack her, they must spend that much less attacking McCain and they come off message.  What’s worse, if they go to hard, they risk alienating women.  They can’t call her unqualified, she has a much stronger record than Obama.  If they say she has too many children, (as some mindless Obama surrogate will likely do), that too would backfire in a major way.  If they say she cannot do such an important job due to her family obligations, if they say she was too recently pregnant, if they say she is only being chosen because she is a woman, etc. it would all backfire.
16.  She bears the antithesis of resemblance to Dick Cheney.
17.  She alienates no part of the GOP base.
18.  Though Alaska is probably not in contention, the old saw that you should pick a veep from a swing state is overstated.  Pawlenty would not carry Minnesota, Ridge would not carry Pennsylvania, Lieberman would not carry Connecticut.  Huge inroads into the national female voting blocks could, however, carry New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc.
19.  As yet, she has not really been attacked by anyone in any important way.
20.  She would be a surprise ace in the hole, as none of the key pundits are plugging her as a possibility.
21.  McCain’s campaign is way too male right now throughout its senior leadership.  Women know this.
22.  She would help balance the “cool” gap McCain lags behind Obama now.  That matters to young voters, even though they never say it that way.
23.  There is a huge “enthusiasm gap” in which McCain lags behind Obama.  There are simply more passionate Obama supporters and grassroots activists on Obama’s side than McCain’s, though there are huge, huge, huge untapped conservative grassroots out there that could get involved with the right veep.  McCain alone or an unexciting veep is not going to do it.   
24.  She has the “pathos” element to complement McCain’s message and may even help bring it out in him.
25.  No other veep possibility has nearly as few down sides, as important the upsides, or the ability to help McCain win that she does.