08 Presidential Candidates, Political Analysis

Senator Obama has clinched the Democratic nomination and Senator Clinton is bowing out, sort of.  While Clinton will throw her support behind Obama, probably as soon as this weekend, she has reminded him not so subtly that she still has leverage and she wants the veep slot on his ticket.  This puts Obama in a pickle.  If he puts her on the ticket now, he will look like he is cowtowing to her hardball, and then who would really be in charge if she, (and Bill Clinton), are constantly there in the spotlight.  If he does not, she may not wholeheartedly support him, and her supporters may not either, which could very easily cost him the election.  Consequently, people are simultaneously saying that he’d be crazy to put her on the ticket and that he has no choice.  The most likely course of action to my mind, though far from a sure thing, is that he’ll promise her a cabinet position, (Health and Human Services perhaps to pursue her health care agenda?), or a Supreme Court seat, or the like, and then he’ll pick a different female for his veep slot.  If he does not choose a female, then McCain has an excellent option that might peel off a lot of disaffected Clintonistas.  See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/the_vp_case_for_gov_sarah_pali.html.

Hot on the heels of Obama was McCain, who invited Obama to join him for a weekly town hall meeting, each week for 10 weeks, all over the country.  The venues would be small, a couple of hundred people, probably in symbolic locations, where the two could talk openly and have non-vetted questions from the crowds, who would be selected by independent pollsters.  The first one would be next week.  This was a brilliant stroke by the McCain camp.  No Democrat can be seen refusing a debate challenge, especially Obama who has already been criticized by Clinton for refusing to debate her in North Carolina or Indiana.  See McCain’s letter to Obama here - http://www.johnmccain.com/downloads/townhallletter.pdf.  Obama’s team has responded they agree in principle but want something with longer speeches, and less audience questions, like the Lincoln-Douglas debates.  Both formats are intriguing, and I hope they do some combination of both.  Its time for both candidates to put their money where their mouths are on this one.

With all the other major news this week, somewhat overlooked is the conviction of Tony Rezko, on 16 guilty counts.  Rezko, a longtime Obama supporter who has funded his 2004 campaign with monies generated from illegal kickbacks and engaged in a land deal to facilitate Obama’s dream home in Chicago, is now in jail.  The prosecutors are at least interested in seeing if he will “give the goods” on Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich, (D), who multiple witnesses testified was aware/involved in corrupt fundraising schemes.  While there is no evidence of illegal activity at this time, who knows what Rezko might say to cut a deal that could implicate Obama down the road.  At a minimum, Obama will likely be criticized more in the weeks ahead for his associations with this large financial backer, slumlord who benefitted from government financing programs Obama championed in the Illinois legislature, who ran illegal land deals and also did land deals with Obama, etc.

In other news:
 
McCain raised a record of $22 million in May, Clinton appears to be $30 million in debt, and Obama’s numbers have not yet been released.  In all likelihood, Obama can raise a million a day through the summer, maybe more, so money will not be a problem for him. 
Dick Morris, former advisor to President Clinton, believes McCain will continue to press his case on Iraq until Obama can answer some important questions.  See http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_dick_morris/obama_s_iraq_achilles_heel

I would also commend as two speech transcripts worth a definite read for any politics junkie - McCain and Obama’s comments on the night the Democratic primary ended and the general election began:

Barack Obama at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/obamas_victory_speech_in_st_pa.html

John McCain at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/mccains_speech_in_new_orleans_1.html

Though each of their speeches deserves a separate post in and of themselves since they are loaded with clues of what we can expect their campaign themes in the general election to be, and some brilliant sound bites for both of them, and some real substantive position statements from each as well.