08 Presidential Candidates, Political Analysis

The big news of the day, on the eve of the Puerto Rico primary, is the Democrats have reached a deal on Florida and Michigan, although it seems a forced compromise that is likely to be appealed by Clinton.  Florida is going to give half a vote to each delegate while Michigan reached a tortured logic compromise that awarded a net 10 delegates to Clinton, who had claimed she would get 73.  The Michigan compromise also halved the delegates, but then averaged those numbers with a 50-50 split division to swing 4 less delegates to Clinton and the same 4 to Obama. 

Although I have not commented much on Michigan, it seems to me that Clinton should at least get the 55% that she won, whether it be under a half vote scheme as they have implemented under party rules (although that too can be appealed which would help Clinton), or a full 1 delegate, 1 vote approach.  Far more logical would be the proposition to not seat Michigan at all.  But that would be electoral suicide.  The initial Obama position on this one was to not seat any of them, then to seat them all via a 50-50 split, – both completely irrespective of the votes in Michigan.  They amount to the same premise, that Michigan should not count for anything, as they both net 0 delegates to either candidate.  Some suggested that Clinton would get the 55% and Obama should get the 40% that voted for undecided to be fair.  To my mind though, this is also tortured logic.  At the time of the Michigan vote, John Edwards was running nearly if not more popularly than Obama in that region of the country, and only lost Iowa to him by a couple of percentage points.  It is more likely that considering Edwards and the other 6 Democrats that also might have fallen under “undecided” votes, that Obama should get something more akin to 20% of those votes counted for him, if any.  Clinton will likely make these arguments at least until the credentialing committee can hear her appeal in July, so I would be surprised if she drops out this week as Obama’s camp continues to suggest she must.  The Clintonistas are outraged.  Compromises that get neither party what it needs are pointless and not likely to stand.  This may have been the worst course of action for the Democrats.

Obama’s in a tough position now, even though the nomination is still his to lose.  He has to win over the Clintonistas in order to win in November, and to anger the Florida and Michigan voters is electoral suicide.  Florida he probably will not win anyways, but the failure to make a good run in Florida hurts him both financially and by easing the time and resources McCain would need to spend in the state.  Michigan is a purple state that the Democrats have won by 3 or so points in the last few cycles.  To lose that swing state could be his undoing.  Half the Democratic party, give or take half a percent, voted for Clinton.  Without her endorsement and a feeling that she was treated fairly, her supporters are not going to flock to him as much as they otherwise would. 

Now, if Obama were to intervene and say that we must count them all, he would come off looking like he had taken the high road.  It would be what Clinton’s supporters expected.  It would also bring Clinton right back to a virtual tie, if not a lead over him.  That situation will not likely improve after the combined results of Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana roll in.  Still also are 180-190 superdelegates who increasingly may go for Clinton if the numbers were even, and he might even be able to expect defections given her better polling against McCain in most swing states (save Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and perhaps Wisconsin - depending on the poll).  Clinton will claim she has won the popular vote as well.  And no Democrat wants to be talking in Florida while people are protesting about their votes not being counted over arguable application of election rules.  Such a “high road” would be a calculated risk for Obama, but one that might be necessary to gain the White House.  Short of that, expect Clinton’s supporters to accuse him of doing as much to drag out this fight until July, or perhaps August.  If Clinton denounces this compromise, he will be forced to make this decision.  By the numbers, Obama’s lead is cut by only 24 delegates on this arrangement, but if the votes are not halved and Clinton were to get 55% to Obama’s 0% for Michigan, then another 153 votes in the gap between them would close.  That would still leave Obama with a 21 delegate lead. 

Obama’s likely strategy at this point will be to wait until the superdelegates are pressured come Wednesday by Pelosi and Dean and other senior Democrats to choose a side, hopefully have enough of a buffer come the July appeal to the credentialing committee, and take the high road then, if feasible, allowing Clinton her full tally at that time.

McCain meanwhile has been careful to not comment on this fight.  The last thing he wants to do is give the Democrats a reason to blame him for this mess, and at best, he will hope that whichever group winds up being disenfranchised will find him by comparison a more reasonable alternative than their intraparty rival.  The question is not whether or not everyone will flock to him or to Obama from Clinton’s camp, the question is how many based on how this is handled?

Perhaps as a bit of getting all the bad news out on the week’s slowest news day that has bigger headlines, Obama has finally left his church.  The recent impetus appears to have been a sermon by a Catholic priest at the church who was a guest homilist that crossed some line Wright did not or was the straw that broke the camel’s back.  The priest, Fr. Pflager, had sharp criticism of Clinton at Obama’s now ex-church.  Obama has not announced whether he will be switching to a new church or denomination.  It seems unlikely that this will make the Wright issue go away, but Obama is likely to be very careful in selecting his next minister, whomever that may be.

Last, Obama and his team criticized McCain this week for getting his tenses wrong on a matter relating to the Iraq war.  May had the lowest level of troop deaths in the war, with only 20, well down from the 132 high point a year and change ago.  Between that and 3 major cities being transitioned to primarily Iraqi control, McCain noted that the war is going well, invited Obama to come see for himself and speak with Amb. Crocker and General Petraeus, and noted that we are now reducing troops to the pre-surge level.  The pre-surge level will not be reached, however, for another 4-6 weeks, and Obama’s team felt McCain’s statement was misleading.