08 Presidential Candidates, Political Analysis

On the GOP side, here are some summary thoughts of which ones McCain might choose:

Short list - Senator Lindsay Graham, Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice, Governor Tim Pawlenty, Senator Mel Martinez

1.  Lindsay Graham - The souther Senator, like McCain, is considered something of a maverick, yet still is fairly popular with the GOP base.  Also, he has worked with and/or agreed with McCain on many issues, including the Gang of 14 and Iraq.  Graham’s similar ideology to McCain, young age, coming from the South, acceptability to the conservative base, and semi-maverick reputation put him near the top of the short list to my mind.

2.  Condaleeza Rice - In a year when Democrats are bashing each other over race and gender politics, Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice may help bring in women feeling disenfranchised with a Clinton loss or black voters upset with an Obama loss.  She, like McCain, strongly supports the war in Iraq, has built good relationships with leaders of foreign nations, and has been considered a prominent GOP figure for a long time.  Drawbacks include that she is pro-choice, (although she opposes the abortion industry agenda on many counts at the same time), she is not an elected official, and some associate her with Bush.  She would have to move firmly to the right on judges and overturning Roe v. Wade back to the states, but I’d put her also near the top of the short list.

3.  Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota, would be a solid conservative to help McCain unite the base, leaving McCain free to vie for the votes of Independents and crossover Democrats.  He would also likely help McCain capture the swing state of Minnesota and its 10 electoral votes, a huge accolade.  Pawlenty’s experience as a state’s leading executive would also help balance McCain’s experience in the legislature.  Pawlenty is certainly on the short list as well, and may be the most logical choice from the current batch of GOP Governors.

4.  Mel Martinez, the junior Senator from Florida, would be an asset to the McCain ticket in several ways.  Although McCain is already likely to take Florida and its 27 electoral votes, Martinez would help sure up that support and deliver his home state.  Martinez also would help McCain make inroads with Hispanic voters, a huge swing constituency that may turn the vote one way or another in New Mexico, Nevada, or even make California competitive, as well as other states.  The GOP cannot forsake this rapidly growing constituency and cede another huge voting bloc to the Democrats, and McCain’s ability as a candidate to neutralize the immigration issue enables him to pick Martinez.  Martinez rounds up my “short list” of GOP candidates.

Most of the other Governors, Senators, and GOP leaders out there are either too liberal for the base, too old and crusty looking for an appearance of an “old white man ticket” which the GOP needs to avoid, too different ideologically from McCain, or not valuable enough to the ticket.  Romney’s attacked McCain too much to be on a 2008 ticket, and Huckabee, though likely to figure prominently on the campaign trail, would help unify Democrats too much against the GOP ticket for McCain to likely pick him.  They might both be considered on a slightly longer list.  Also, Governor Sarah Polin of Alaska might be considered as she might bring some accolades on reaching the female vote, young voters, and would likely be welcomed by the GOP base.  Former House rep J.C. Watts would be a solid conservative who could help make inroads into the black vote if Clinton wins the nomination, but he is not currently serving in political office.

On the Democrats’ side, here are my summary thoughts on the veep short list:

Short list:  Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Evan Bayh, Governor Tim Kaine, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi

1.  Governor Bill Richardson - Both Democrats realize the value of Richardson as the nation’s only Governor with some Hispanic blood in him.  He could help make Florida competitive, put away California, swing New Mexico, and help make serious inroads in Nevada and Arizona, as well as be a general asset to the ticket nationally.  He could no longer marry with a Clinton ticket after endorsing Obama, however.

2.  Senator Evan Bayh - The Senator from Indiana is a mid-west Democrat who has had success with an electorate Democrats have, as a party, failed to reach during the low points of their party’s popularity a few years ago.  He would probably be the top choice among their current batch of Senators.

3.  Governor Tim Kaine - The Virginia Governor would help swing Virginia and its 13 electoral votes, perhaps, to the left.  He does well among Catholics, (as he is one), and moderate/independents, and in the south generally.  While some of the same can be said about former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, Warner is almost certain to take over the soon to be vacant Senate seat in Virginia of retiring Republican John Warner.

4.  Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi - Though least likely on this list, Obama would be hard pressed perhaps to not choose a female to help unite disenfranchised Clinton voters.  He cannot choose Clinton after all their sharp attacks on each other, but a prominent female would help reunify the Democratic ticket.  The Democrats have a number of other female leaders.  Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri narrowly won her seat in 2006, so is not that strong and may not swing the state.  Senator Landrieu of Louisiana is not likely to win reelection to her Senate seat in 2008, and may be considered something of a loser by the party.  Governor Sebelius of Kansas has been considered but is very closely tied to the abortion industry which would unite the GOP base against the Democratic candidate.

Democrats are unlikely to choose Edwards again as a V.P. candidate, but might be enticed by John Kerry or Al Gore as a veep candidate.  Neither man is likely to accept the post, however, as Gore has already served 8 years and will likely wait for 2012 or 2016, and Kerry would also prefer to run for President in the future and is still a bad candidate on the Iraq war in terms of public popularity.  All three would be possible, however.