08 Presidential Candidates, Political Analysis

Looking at Rasmussen Reports, what happens if the GOP wins all the states that are in the categories of Leans Republican, likely Republican or Safe Republican, while the Democrats win all the states in the categories of Leans Democrat, likely Democrat or Safe Democrat?  That leaves 4 states in the category of “Toss Up”.  Lets say the GOP wins Ohio and Colorado, while the Democrats win Michigan and New Mexico.  That would result in an electoral tie of 269 votes each.  Under the 12th Amendment to the Constitution, each state’s Congressional delegation to the House of Representatives would get 1 vote each to decide the next President, and a majority of all states, that is to say at least 26, would select the President.  So California gets one vote based on a majority of the votes of its Congressmen and Montana gets 1 vote from its only Congressman.  As it turns out, according to wikipedia.com, the Democrats control 26 states, the GOP 21 states, and 3 are even.  The Senate would choose the Vice President, which is also controlled by the Democrats, however, independent Joe Lieberman may prefer to vote for McCain, whom he has campaigned for, rather than one of the Democrats who want to pull out of the Iraq war, which is the issue closest to his heart.  So we may end up with the Democrat being elected President, and McCain Vice President.  Having the President and Vice President from different parties is not unprecedented in our nation’s history, in fact, its happened several times.  Unfortunately, that also tends to increase the likelihood of assassination attempts, for obvious reasons.  Or Lieberman might vote for the Democrat vice-presidential candidate and the Democrats could win outright.

Another scenario is if there is an electoral tie, but one of the 35 Democratic Congressman from any one of the 8 states that the Democrats have a greater delegation by a single representative retires or dies.  Then, the Democrats would only have 25 states, not a majority of all states, and they could not select the President from the House.  (Of course the GOP could have brought the Democrat state delegation majority from 26 to 25, as is in their interest, if they had won the special election this winter in Indiana, but they did not). 

Fortunately, our 12th Amendment anticipated such a scenario and specifies that the Vice President would then act as President.  What is unclear, however, is whether the Vice President, or Senate selection would be the President, or if the next Congress would vote again on the President to try again to reach a 26 state majority.  More likely than not, it is the former and not the latter, but there are zero cases in our Constitutional history on point because such a scenario has not as yet unfolded.  As the 12th Amendment was passed in 1804, there probably isn’t much in way of legislative history either, so the Supreme Court would have to start from scratch in figuring that one out.  There is probably a 5-4 or 6-3 GOP majority on the Supreme Court, however, so that likely benefits the GOP position in such a controversy.  So let’s assume the Senate makes that decision on the Vice President who will act as President, and then becomes President when after January 20th the states were unable to reach a 26 state coalition around one candidate.  The 49 Democrats and the independent from Vermont will vote for Obama or Clinton, (or Gore), whichever one won the nomination, the 49 Republicans and Lieberman will vote for McCain, resulting in yet again another deadlock tie.  The Constitution then directs that all ties in the Senate will be broken by the Vice President, so Dick Cheney (assuming he hasn’t had a heart attack and died) would then select John McCain as President. 

Say Cheney has a heart attack and dies.  The Speaker of the House, Democrat Nancy Pelosi would then be the next in line.  It is unclear whether she would step in and name the Democrat as President, or if President Bush could then name a replacement Vice President, who would then name the next President, though likely the latter as the Constitution allows the Speaker of the House to become President if both the President and Vice President are killed or incapacitated, but not vote to break ties in the Senate if the Vice President dies.  Still it may make for some very interesting lawsuits… 

All in all, a surprisingly interesting week in Presidential politics with developments that will shape the future course of the campaign.

While the pastor Wright scandal continues to dominate the conversation, Obama has tried to steer attention elsewhere with attacks on Clinton and on McCain.  Clinton’s flap this week is really an old story made new again where she said she was under sniper fire in a trip to Bosnia, defended the comment when contradicted, and ultimately admitted she misspoke when YouTube video was released showing her depiction was way off.  Obama’s surrogates are painting her as an untrustworthy liar and a foolish one at that.  Obama critics meanwhile have continued to hammer the point that his affiliation, close mentor-mentee relationship with the man whose sermons preached hate of America and white people and inspired the title to Obama’s book make him divisive.  They have also jumped on the recently released tax returns of the Obamas, showing that he is a millionaire, who up until 2006, was not giving more than a couple thousand in charity per year, undercutting he and his wife’s themes of being able to identify with the poor.  Obama has attacked McCain by characterizing McCain as taking a do-nothing passive approach to the economy.  Both Democrats’ numbers plummetted a few points this week according to Rasmussen Reports, where Obama now trails McCain by 9% nationally.  Despite Clinton’s Bosnia flap, she seems to have come off slightly better to Democratic primary voters of late, expanding her Pennsylvania lead, and narrowing the gap in North Carolina.

Mike Gravel, the other Democrat running for President, notable only in that he is never noted though in the race, has dropped his Democratic Presidential bid.  He is, however, still going to run on a libertatrian ticket.  As he never got even 1% in any state, I don’t think anyone is too concerned.

Lastly on the Democrat side, a Florida congressman has floated the idea that if the convention is split and neither Clinton nor Obama reaches the requisite 2025 delegates, that Al Gore be selected as the nominee.  Gore is immensely popular within the party and has not been torn down by the rigors of the vicious campaign that has decreased the favorable ratings for Clinton and Obama, but he has not won nor campaigned for a single vote in 2008.  Still, under their party’s rules, if after the 1st vote at the convention there is no winner with 2025 or more votes, all delegates are released and can vote for anyone. 

McCain meanwhile has worked on fundraising, preparing his message, unifying the party, etc.  It seems that he is anticipating what the Democratic nominee, whomever it will be, will do.  Because whichever candidate, Clinton or Obama, emerges at the end of the primary on top will do so after a divisive campaign, the Democratic nominee will have some real trouble mending their own party.  Some polls are showing 20% of both Obama and Clinton’s supporters as stating they would sooner vote for McCain or stay home than vote for the other Democrat.  Consequently, the DNC’s only message that they can formulate between now and perhaps the late August convention is to figure out how to attack McCain.  They will do so by painting him as the same as President Bush, already utlizing rhetoric and labels such as McSame or “Bush III”.  McCain, however, may be able to dodge this label, and his current efforts seem to, by design or coincidence, distance and distinguish himself from Bush. 

McCain spent the week travelling abroad, meeting with leaders in foreign nations, which both helped him look Presidential and sent the message that he is focused on rebuilding America’s relationships with our allies, our international image, etc…  By doing so he preempts a Democratic talking point that almost certainly would have been used against him.  McCain signals that he will trumpet his foreign policy experience and capacity over the inexperience and empty claims of his rivals.  McCain has called on the Democrats to support the troops by acknowledging that the surge he has supported from the beginning is working, but neither Democrat is likely to make any such acknowledgement.  While casualties are down and the military reports look a lot better, both Democrats maintain we should not be there in Iraq and that they will withdraw our troops.  Obama has said he’ll send them back if al Qaeda establishes a base in the country, however.  Clinton has said she would rely on elite special force teams to run covert operations in the region to protect our interests.

As the GOP nomination has been wrapped up, the Democrats continue in the fight between Clinton and Obama.  Both have stepped up their rhetoric and attacks on the other in what has become an increasingly nasty fight.  Obama’s supporters want the process wrapped up now, while Obama has a 130 delegate lead, more money, and most of his credibility intact during the primary contest.  They are increasingly making the argument that no matter what happens in the remaining primary contests, Obama should be the Democratic nominee because he will lead in voter pledged delegates no matter what happens and superdelegates cannot overturn the will of the people.  Also, this week he picked up Governor Richardson’s endorsement. 

Here are ten top reasons Clinton, however, may stand a fighting chance to win the nomination:

1.  Financial straits not so dire.  Despite the difference in cash on hand (Obama $32 million to Clinton’s $11 million at the end of February) this is not so dire for Clinton.  $11 million is enough to be getting on with, and Clinton can also borrow heavily since she can repay any debts from the $20 million she has pledged for the general election, which about evens things up.  She has been running a tighter ship lately, (spending roughly $1 million a day in February to Obama’s $1.5 million per day), so at their current rate she could gain roughly half a million a day on him.  Her fundraising capacity is vast, with her husband able to raise a million in a day perhaps.  As momentum and polls can change, so can cash flows.  Also, between now and April 22nd, there are no states to focus on but Pennsylvania, meaning less cash is needed.  42 states down and 8 to go may mean less electoral opportunites, and it also means less impact from cash advantages.

2.  Popularity over popular vote.  Current poll averages at www.RealClearPolitics.com, which compiles the average poll numbers from a number of leading pollsters, and www.Rasmussenreports.com, a leading pollster in election day accuracy, has Clinton currently more popular among primary voters than Obama.  That alone might be a basis for counterargument to his “must not overturn the will of the people” argument.  Further, she can undermine this argument of his by pointing to the fact that she, unlike him, has fought to have the votes of Florida and Michigan count.  While it may have been politically convenient for her to do so, it was equally politically convenient for Obama to contend those votes should not be counted. 

3.  Momentum.  Clinton is leading Obama by huge margins in Pennsylvania (+16%) and West Virginia (+28%).  If Pennsylvania’s primary took place today, Clinton would net a +32 delegate advantage over Obama, bringing his lead perhaps under 100.  After that, there are no primaries for 2 weeks in which the flow of superdelegates to her might increase sharply.  Obama’s lead in North Carolina has all but disappeared, and some polls even have Clinton ahead there now.  A draw in North Carolina further strengthens Clinton’s momentum, and may increase the number of superdelegates which gravitate toward her.

4.  The Big State argument.  Clinton beat Obama in most big states, disincluding his home state of Illinois.  California (56 electoral votes), New York (31 electoral votes), Texas (30 electoral votes), Florida (27 electoral votes), soon Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes), Ohio (20 electoral votes), Michigan (17 electoral votes), New Jersey (15 electoral votes), as well as others all went her way.  While Obama has won more states, this big state argument has its merit as the electoral votes in the states she has won may outnumber his by the time this process is through. 

5.  The popular vote argument.  Although Obama will contend counting Michigan and Florida is unfair, be sure Clinton will base her argument on the votes she garnered there as well.  By the time the process is through, Clinton may well outnumber Obama’s popular vote total, which could further undermine the Obama “can’t overturn the will of the people” argument.

6.  The swing state argument.  There are 32 states, according to Rasmussen Reports, which are solidly going to vote either for the GOP or Democratic nominee come November.  Really, there are 18 states left as battlegrounds, and maybe 11 or 12 in which the winner will really be decided.  Key among them include large electoral vote swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  If Clinton wills all three by 15-20%, as she seems poised to do, having already won Florida and Ohio by those margins and leading by such a margin in Pennsylvania, this will be a powerful reason for superdelegates to give her the nomination. 

7.  Electability at convention time.  If this fight goes to the nomination, look for a poll or two from the Clinton camp detailing how the numbers will have changed from how well Obama did in February, especially in general election match-ups against McCain, especially in key swing states against McCain.  If Clinton outperforms Obama there, this will be a powerful argument for the superdelegates to unite behind her instead.  Even now, she is polling better than Obama against McCain in terms of a national popular vote, the Florida contest, the Ohio contest, and the Pennsylvania contest.  If the Democrats lose that trio of states, the GOP will have at least 257 electoral votes, leaving their nominee in a must-win position for nearly every single other swing state in the country, thinly stretching even copious resources.  Such a trio of states must be given high consideration by the superdelegates, and there lies Clinton’s hope.  Her electability advantage will likely be stronger at convention time than it is now, making this a powerful argument in her favor.

8.  Scandal.  The power of political scandal was demonstrated recently in the Reverend Wright affair.  Obama’s close relationship over 20 years with his own minister and his refusal to put much distance between the two has seriously damaged Obama’s standing, both within the party and in a general election match-up.  Obama’s standing among independents has plummeted and both liberal and conservative commentators have said the honeymoon period of his candidacy is at an end.  Juan Williams of NPR noted that Obama did to himself what Clinton never managed and transformed himself into the “black candidate” with his speech on race. 

9.  More scandal.  While Wright has undermined Obama’s right-standing with the American voting populace, it would be wrong to conclude that the bleeding will stop here soon.  The power of political scandal favors Clinton down the stretch because unlike Obama, she has already been exhaustively vetted.  Neither Obama, nor the GOP, nor anyone else has anything new to pull out of the bag against her.  They can pull out the old stuff, yes, but old stuff does not move poll numbers as sharply as new stuff.  Obama has only held federal office for 3 years, 2 of which has been spent running for President.  The public likes him for the most part, his favorables exceed his unfavorable ratings, but the public understands they do not really know him yet.  The public is ready to change its view, and half expects new gossip and dirt to come out on him.  The mud slinging contest between Obama and Clinton will continue to advantage Clinton over Obama.  Nor does she have an incentive to stop attacking him now.  As she attacks, his numbers go down, but those who would consider abandoning support of her because of such attacks have already done so or will not do so.  If he does not attack back, the press is all negative against him and he may even look weak.  If he does attack back, his “new type of candidate” image as the “positive” candidate is undermined and he loses support.  In my opinion, one more big scandal - (of the Eliot Spitzer variety), or three to four more little or moderate scandals (of the Reverend Wright variety), and Obama will be finished.  You never know when a scandal might break.

10.  The GOP.  The GOP wants this fight to go to the convention, and possibly even have chaos reign there.  While ultimately one Democrat will come out standing when the dust clears, and the party will unite behind him/her, the GOP would rather see that happen later rather than sooner.  As long as the two of them fight, McCain’s relative advantage is likely to increase, both in terms of popular support and his fundraising deficiency to Clinton and Obama.  The GOP will attack Obama, therefore, to try and draw him down and draw out this fight.  They have every incentive to try to start bringing him down now, and they likely will be able to at the least bring down his numbers significantly.  While this runs the risk of a Clinton comeback, the GOP will not worry about that unless and until it seems likely to happen.  The Pennsylvania primary is not until April 22, so for another four weeks, they will not worry about that, as there will be little to no delegate movement for Clinton until that time.

If Clinton closes on a hot stretch of victories over Obama, she could easily close the gap in delegates between them to about 40-50 going into the convention, or maybe even less.  If that happens, and the poll numbers are right so that the leaders see their November chances are better with her, a John Edwards endorsement with his 30-40 delegates and momentum could give her the nod.  

Who will the V.P. candidates be?

On the GOP side, here are some summary thoughts of which ones McCain might choose:

Short list - Senator Lindsay Graham, Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice, Governor Tim Pawlenty, Senator Mel Martinez

1.  Lindsay Graham - The souther Senator, like McCain, is considered something of a maverick, yet still is fairly popular with the GOP base.  Also, he has worked with and/or agreed with McCain on many issues, including the Gang of 14 and Iraq.  Graham’s similar ideology to McCain, young age, coming from the South, acceptability to the conservative base, and semi-maverick reputation put him near the top of the short list to my mind.

2.  Condaleeza Rice - In a year when Democrats are bashing each other over race and gender politics, Secretary of State Condaleeza Rice may help bring in women feeling disenfranchised with a Clinton loss or black voters upset with an Obama loss.  She, like McCain, strongly supports the war in Iraq, has built good relationships with leaders of foreign nations, and has been considered a prominent GOP figure for a long time.  Drawbacks include that she is pro-choice, (although she opposes the abortion industry agenda on many counts at the same time), she is not an elected official, and some associate her with Bush.  She would have to move firmly to the right on judges and overturning Roe v. Wade back to the states, but I’d put her also near the top of the short list.

3.  Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota, would be a solid conservative to help McCain unite the base, leaving McCain free to vie for the votes of Independents and crossover Democrats.  He would also likely help McCain capture the swing state of Minnesota and its 10 electoral votes, a huge accolade.  Pawlenty’s experience as a state’s leading executive would also help balance McCain’s experience in the legislature.  Pawlenty is certainly on the short list as well, and may be the most logical choice from the current batch of GOP Governors.

4.  Mel Martinez, the junior Senator from Florida, would be an asset to the McCain ticket in several ways.  Although McCain is already likely to take Florida and its 27 electoral votes, Martinez would help sure up that support and deliver his home state.  Martinez also would help McCain make inroads with Hispanic voters, a huge swing constituency that may turn the vote one way or another in New Mexico, Nevada, or even make California competitive, as well as other states.  The GOP cannot forsake this rapidly growing constituency and cede another huge voting bloc to the Democrats, and McCain’s ability as a candidate to neutralize the immigration issue enables him to pick Martinez.  Martinez rounds up my “short list” of GOP candidates.

Most of the other Governors, Senators, and GOP leaders out there are either too liberal for the base, too old and crusty looking for an appearance of an “old white man ticket” which the GOP needs to avoid, too different ideologically from McCain, or not valuable enough to the ticket.  Romney’s attacked McCain too much to be on a 2008 ticket, and Huckabee, though likely to figure prominently on the campaign trail, would help unify Democrats too much against the GOP ticket for McCain to likely pick him.  They might both be considered on a slightly longer list.  Also, Governor Sarah Polin of Alaska might be considered as she might bring some accolades on reaching the female vote, young voters, and would likely be welcomed by the GOP base.  Former House rep J.C. Watts would be a solid conservative who could help make inroads into the black vote if Clinton wins the nomination, but he is not currently serving in political office.

On the Democrats’ side, here are my summary thoughts on the veep short list:

Short list:  Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Evan Bayh, Governor Tim Kaine, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi

1.  Governor Bill Richardson - Both Democrats realize the value of Richardson as the nation’s only Governor with some Hispanic blood in him.  He could help make Florida competitive, put away California, swing New Mexico, and help make serious inroads in Nevada and Arizona, as well as be a general asset to the ticket nationally.  He could no longer marry with a Clinton ticket after endorsing Obama, however.

2.  Senator Evan Bayh - The Senator from Indiana is a mid-west Democrat who has had success with an electorate Democrats have, as a party, failed to reach during the low points of their party’s popularity a few years ago.  He would probably be the top choice among their current batch of Senators.

3.  Governor Tim Kaine - The Virginia Governor would help swing Virginia and its 13 electoral votes, perhaps, to the left.  He does well among Catholics, (as he is one), and moderate/independents, and in the south generally.  While some of the same can be said about former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, Warner is almost certain to take over the soon to be vacant Senate seat in Virginia of retiring Republican John Warner.

4.  Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi - Though least likely on this list, Obama would be hard pressed perhaps to not choose a female to help unite disenfranchised Clinton voters.  He cannot choose Clinton after all their sharp attacks on each other, but a prominent female would help reunify the Democratic ticket.  The Democrats have a number of other female leaders.  Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri narrowly won her seat in 2006, so is not that strong and may not swing the state.  Senator Landrieu of Louisiana is not likely to win reelection to her Senate seat in 2008, and may be considered something of a loser by the party.  Governor Sebelius of Kansas has been considered but is very closely tied to the abortion industry which would unite the GOP base against the Democratic candidate.

Democrats are unlikely to choose Edwards again as a V.P. candidate, but might be enticed by John Kerry or Al Gore as a veep candidate.  Neither man is likely to accept the post, however, as Gore has already served 8 years and will likely wait for 2012 or 2016, and Kerry would also prefer to run for President in the future and is still a bad candidate on the Iraq war in terms of public popularity.  All three would be possible, however.

We now enter a new chapter in primary campaign season with less speculation and more drama.

X-factor potential candidate Bloomberg has announced he will not run for President.  Still, the billionaire media tycoon and NY Governor will have an important endorsement to offer for one candidate or the other, but it will not take place in the next three months.  Bloomberg sits it out this chapter.

Quadrennial x-factor Ralph Nader has named his vice-presidential candidate, Matt Gonzalez, also of the Green Party.  Gonzalez lost the race for mayor of San Francisco a few years ago, but his presence on the ticket should help Nader pick up a greater percentage of the Hispanic vote.  Nader plows ahead in his drive to get on the ballot.  See http://www.votenader.org/index.html if you are curious about Nader or wish to help him get on the ballot.  Nader highlights a dozen important issues on which he will base his campaign.  His goal will be to get 5% of the vote and thereby qualify the Green Party for public financing.  His issues are advocating for single payer national health insurance, cutting the military budget, focusing on solar rather than nuclear power, an aggressive crackdown on corporate crime/welfare, allowing himself to participate in the Presidential debates, adopting a carbon pollution tax, reversing U.S. middle East policy, impeaching Bush/Cheney, repealing the Taft-Hartley law (which is anti-union), adopting a Wall Street securities speculation tax, ending ballot access obstructionism, and working to end corporate personhood. 

Suffice to say, that if he continues to focus on these platforms, he will have far more success peeling off voters from the left rather than the right.  His anti-Bush, pro-tax, anti-business, pro-union, anti-large military, anti-war, and perhaps anti-Israel policies would be anathema to most on the right.  His opposition to nuclear power will likely not go over well with those concerned with our dependence on foreign oil, and if he chooses to speak about ballot access obstructionism, it will most adversely affect the Democrats, who kept him off many states’ ballots in 2004.  That said, a 3rd party candidate appeals more to Independents than those affiliated with a party, so he may cut more into McCain’s support than Obama or Clinton.  Overall though, his presence will probably help McCain in 2008 and perhaps advance 3rd party politics in America.  He is not likely to be invited to any Presidential debates with the candidates of the GOP and Democratic parties.

With Huckabee dropping out, McCain’s last significant rival is out of the way.  Although Ron Paul has not dropped out, McCain no longer needs to worry about any primary campaigns.  With the past Tuesday’s contests, he has clinched the GOP nomination.  This gives McCain a significant advantage.  While the Democrats continue to battle it out, he can focus on the general election.  McCain will move more to the center where possible, will strive to unify his party, hone his criticisms of the Democratic candidates, fundraise for the general election, campaign in general election swing states, meet with foreign leaders and the troops overseas, etc.  He will need this time to build some momentum of his own.

Clinton’s victories in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island put her within striking distance of a comeback.  She has now won almost every “big state” including Texas, Ohio, New York, California, New Jersey, Florida, and Michigan.  Those seven states alone have nearly 200 electoral votes.  While Obama has won roughly twice as many states, they are very close in the popular vote.  The Democratic party is also now talking about a “revote” in Florida and Michigan, two states that went heavily for Clinton but gave her no delegates due to the Democratic state parties in those states moving up their primaries in violation of DNC rules.  It is likely that if these two revote, and Clinton wins Pennsylvania as she did Ohio, (which I predict she will based on PA Gov. Ed Rendell’s support, her momentum, and the similarity of OH and PA demographics) she not only will be within 30 or so delegates of Obama, but we will see superdelegates floating more to her than Obama.  This would happen for three reasons.  First, it would indicate she has momentum and a streak going.  Second, she will have won more big states and probably a higher amount in the popular vote.  Third, she will have bested Obama in the triumvirate of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, the three largest swing states.

Clinton’s newfound viability, therefore, and the fact that there are no more significant primaries before April 22nd, suggest that this battle will wage on at least that long.  Obama will not be able to clinch the nomination without heavy superdelegate help, same as Clinton, though he has a mathematical edge.  This likely will not be resolved before June, when the Democratic primaries all take place, and then perhaps not until the convention.  What then, can we anticipate in the campaign strategies of these two candidates?

First, expect Clinton to walk a fine line between going negative on Obama, which has helped her, and at the same time creating a talking point that they are having a very civil discourse.  Best case scenario for her is to beat Obama and then make him her veep. 

Second, Obama also will focus on positive campaigning, since if he goes negative, it will tarnish his image far more than Clinton, who is already viewed as having gone negative. 

Third, expect Howard Dean and other leading Democrat voices to promote civil discourse as the rules for this rumble, with the hope of the two candidates joining onto one ticket, or at least not splitting the party. 

Fourth, expect John McCain to attack both Democrats, particularly on their stances on the Iraq war, empty rhetoric, cost of their campaign promises, ethics issues, and perhaps one or two other key talking points. 

Fifth, expect the Democratic candidates, but Obama especially, to make the argument that they are most likely to beat McCain and trumpet the electability advanatage shown in the polls as they unfold. 

Sixth, both Democrats will continue to contrast themselves with Bush and perhaps now McCain more than each other.  This will likely benefit Clinton, as she has lost the contrast between her and Obama as the “agent of change.”  If they are both contrasting themselves with Bush and/or McCain, she may be able to moot Obama’s advantage on this point.

Seventh, McCain will in this period generate a short list of potential veep candidates.  As he does so, expect many leading Republicans to join in the attack on Clinton and Obama.  This will keep McCain from appearing very negative and accomplish the same aims.  They will attack the Democrats on an array of issues, which will mobilize and unify the GOP.  This they must also do to counterbalance the inevitable dominance the Democrats will have in press coverage given the unresolved status of their primary.

Eighth, as McCain attacks from the right, Nader will attack from the left, perhaps outflanking Obama on the war issue, a sizeable and critical constituency.

Ninth, the media will be sensitive to virulence from Obama or Clinton or either candidate playing the race/gender card.  Both candidates will be more heavily incentivized to focus on the issues, so we may see some more in depth discussion on the issues than we have seen thus far.  The pace from here is slower, as the primaries are more spread out, allowing each candidate to outdo each other with arguments rather than the soundbites that a rapid primary season forces onto candidates.

Tenth, expect some drama between Clinton and Obama on what to do with Florida and Michigan.  Putting them in play greatly advantages Clinton, and Obama will not let that happen without a fight.

Also, see http://www.270towin.com/ for an electoral map in 2008, or www.rasmussenreports.com to see updates on the electoral college projections based on polling, market data, and historical trends.  After all the sound and fury on the campaign trail, which Democrat will face McCain in November, due to the crucial role of the superdelegates, (who are not bound to vote for a candidate based on any primary but wish to see a ticket likely to win in November and who have due to the math the final decision in which Democrat will win their nomination), will depend on which one seems most electable to the superdelegates looking at web sites like these.