Primary end game begins
Obama has shed the underdog title and Clinton, down about ninety delegates, is now truly an underdog herself. Major endorsements could still be received from players such as John Edwards and Al Gore, with the latter withholding his so as to help prevent a convention crisis if neither candidate can claim clear victory at the convention.
With 15 states remaining, Clinton is by no means mathematically eliminated. She can expect to win large in Texas and Ohio, which would roughly draw her even with Obama, if current polling numbers are accurate. Still, Obama leads in other large states such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which leaves Clinton unlikely to overtake him. Clinton has five strategies she will employ besides the usual back and forth of campaigning to help her overtake Obama:
1. The Clintons are already individually calling each unpledged superdelegate, that is, voters who cast their votes irrespective of what the voting public wants, to persuade them to vote for them. Obama’s camp is likely doing the same, and Obama has indeed been catching up by about plus 10 delegates over the past week or two in this category, but over time, the Clintons have the edge here due to their outstanding connections.
2. The Clintons will work to have Florida and Michigan, two states that the DNC disenfranchised for moving up their primary voting date, reinstated. Senator Clinton won both of these states in a big way, which means that if they were reinstated, she would be much more likely to win the race.
3. Senator Clinton will emerge with a new theme for her campaign. While she will continue to tout the “experience” factor, it clearly is not winning out over Obama’s “hope/optimism” factor.
4. Senator Clinton must and will go far more negative on Obama, attacking the emptiness of his phrases as empty platitudes, portray him as incapable of living up to his grand promises, and all talk with no substance. She’ll say he’s unqualified without using the word. Thin on substance. Showy. A premadonna. She will need to tirade all of his specific policy inadequacies, and probably develop one or two “wedge” issues that she can point to where Obama might be unacceptable to the base. She could portray him as two-faced by showing how he has gone negative. Has Obama ever done something flat-out insulting to women or cheated? This is the type of smear the base will be particularly sensitive towards right now.
5. Senator Clinton should challenge Obama to a series of debates on foreign policy and health care. While not delving into the practicality of either of their plans, she believes and has passion that she is stronger on these topics than the unacceptable stances of Obama, and she is running out of time to make that argument. Obama cannot refuse such a conversation if the challenge is publicly made without losing points. While Obama has been the better debater thus far, she can show how unacceptable his total immediate withdrawal in Iraq plan is to conservatives while showing her practical plan to meet the base’s plans and sound smart on health care issues where he has little experience. If she wins these debates, these could be her “wedge issues.”
Obama has momentum, but no matter how negative Clinton goes, he cannot go negative back without losing his hope/optimisim/positive campaign support. He will tout his successes and momentum and continue his grandiose style speeches and promises. In the meantime, in private, he will also seek both endorsements and superdelegates, and you can bet that once the Clinton team puts their plan into action, he will roll out at least one big endorsement to help restore momentum at a critical moment. Probably John Edwards. He may now charge Clinton with election fraud over irregularities in vote counting in many New York precincts, where Clinton had been stated to have won Harlem and Brooklyn, predominantly African-American precincts, with 100% support, where in truth, Obama likely won. This will diminish her delegate count further and strengthen both his delegate count strength and momentum. If they debate, he will want an array of issues discussed with a broad and sympathetic panel, likely with a large public audience.
The x-factor of a Bloomberg and/or Nader run remains on the horizon. Bloomberg continues to speak as a candidate, McCain will not be able to unify the entire GOP due to his maverick stances over the years which will drive the GOP “suicide voters” to a Bloomberg candidacy, (suicide voters being a vote for anyone other than the party nominee), and Democrats’ potential for a split convention could allow him to capitalize on splits on the left as well. Voter affiliation with parties is at an all-time low, and those calling themselves “independent” is at an all time high. He has a billion dollars, more pronounced stances on economic development, energy policy, and the environment than many candidates, and could pull in a true bipartisan team that many will prefer to one party or the other’s polarized stances on every major issue. A true “conversation, America first team” that by its nature is a bipartisan Presidential administration could have large appeal if crafted properly. Time will tell.
Last, speculation continues over who McCain’s veep should be. Huckabee has run strong as the social conservative for the South, but I do not believe McCain will choose him. They are different ideologically. McCain might do better with a female veep in case Obama beats Clinton, which could enable him to siphon off women votes upset about Hilary Clinton’s loss. Senator Hutchinson of Texas might be acceptable to southern social conservatives while filling that bill. Governor Polin of Arkansas is a telegenic and across the board conservative as well. If Clinton wins the primary, he could go with a minority to reach out to that demographic, particularly a Hispanic, which are more a swing constituency. Senator Mel Martinez of Florida supported him to his crucial Florida victory, and would be a great option as well. He would carry both social conservative support and Hispanic support, outflanking by far the Democrats’ outreach efforts to Hispanics by putting a Hispanic on a Presidential ticket.
