Iowa, Bloomberg, and candidate standing
The biggest news in the Presidential campaign is the upcoming primaries in Iowa in just two days time. While nationally the GOP race is very close (McCain 17%, Huckabee 16%, Romney 16%, Giuliani 15%, Thompson 12%), the Democrats primary is not (Clinton 42%, Obama 23%, Edwards 16%). See http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll.
Those who do well in the early primaries get a big boost in the national polls. For others who don’t do well, it could siginificantly damage their standing in national polls. The excitement about Iowa is not about its paltry number of electoral votes (although it is a swing state), its about how the race is about to get shaken up. Candidates who are well funded, such as Romney or Clinton, may well be able to overcome a loss in Iowa, whereas those not as well funded, such as Huckabee and Thompson, are in more of a do or die scenario. The latest numbers in Iowa have Huckabee at 27%, Romney at 26%, McCain at 14%, and nobody else on the radar for the GOP. On the Democrats side, its Clinton at 31%, Obama at 27%, and Edwards at 22%. If Obama can overtake Clinton, it will give him a big boost in the national polls, but if he loses, it will be a major setback to his campaign. Edwards will do better than most places when in Iowa, so a third place finish there will reinforce his status as third in a two horse race.
Those who do well in the early primaries get a big boost in the national polls. For others who don’t do well, it could siginificantly damage their standing in national polls. The excitement about Iowa is not about its paltry number of electoral votes (although it is a swing state), its about how the race is about to get shaken up. Candidates who are well funded, such as Romney or Clinton, may well be able to overcome a loss in Iowa, whereas those not as well funded, such as Huckabee and Thompson, are in more of a do or die scenario. The latest numbers in Iowa have Huckabee at 27%, Romney at 26%, McCain at 14%, and nobody else on the radar for the GOP. On the Democrats side, its Clinton at 31%, Obama at 27%, and Edwards at 22%. If Obama can overtake Clinton, it will give him a big boost in the national polls, but if he loses, it will be a major setback to his campaign. Edwards will do better than most places when in Iowa, so a third place finish there will reinforce his status as third in a two horse race.
Although he is a close 5th in national GOP primary numbers, Fred Thompson’s greatest advantage is he is viewed favorably by more people than any other GOP candidate, with a 77% favorability rating. Romney is steady at 73%, McCain has jumped 6 points to 63%. Sharply down from an astronomical 81% is Huckabee at a decent 67%. Giuliani’s nose dive continues as he now is a distant 5th, or least electable, at 58%, a 16% drop in the last month alone.
Also of interest is this article about a possible Bloomberg independent run. A future article will analyze what impact he may have on the race. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/us/politics/31bloomberg.html?ei=5065&en=2da39fd541678920&ex=1199682000&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print
