08 Presidential Candidates, Political Analysis

GOP candidates Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter have dropped out of the race for President of the United States.  This thins the GOP field to five candidates - McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani, and Paul.  Thompson had still been pulling down a good 10-13% in most polls, so who he endorses, and who his voters decide to switch to at this point, could be the next big momentum swing in the race.  Odds are that Huckabee and Romney stand to benefit the most, although all the candidates should benefit from Thompson’s withdrawal as his supporters search for their next best candidate.  Thompson will most likely endorse McCain, the frontrunner, due to Thompson’s spats with Romney and Huckabee in debates and on the campaign trail, the declining campaign and social issue differences of Giuliani, and the radically different stances Paul and Thompson have on foreign policy.  Thompson may still be viewed as a strong potential veep selection, and could pair well on a McCain ticket, another reason for him to endorse McCain.  Duncan Hunter could be a strong veep candidate for McCain, Romney, or Huckabee, but my guess is he will also endorse McCain as they have much in common, particularly the fact that they are the only two who have children serving in Iraq.  McCain’s campaign has also stated there is no chance Lieberman would be the veep on his ticket.

Clinton and Obama continue to oscillate between “playing nicely” and taking shots at each other on the trail.  While Obama continues to gain momentum, Clinton continues to win each contest after Iowa.  That could change a bit on Friday, as Obama will likely take South Carolina.  Most likely, however, Clinton’s huge lead in Florida will stem Obama’s momentum heading into the February 5th Super Tuesday, where many states vote, and Clinton’s victories will pile up to an insurmountable extent.  Nevertheless, a large Obama victory in SC, and a close showing in FL could give him enough credibility to do well enough in February 5th states to keep going.  The longer his campaign stays alive, the more likely he will be to overtake her.

For the GOP, all eyes turn to Florida where, until recently, a four way tie existed between McCain, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani.  McCain has now pulled ahead, however, and he will likely win the state, carrying his momentum into the February 5th primaries.  Second place is close between Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani.  Paul will not win, but if he can finish 4th out of the remaining 5, he will do better than expected and stay in it a while longer.  If Giuliani does not win Florida, he is finished.  No longer able to pay his campaign staff and having pulled his campaign out of every state but Florida, he has staked his campaign there.  While not a bad strategy considering his politics would never win out in a GOP primary in Iowa or South Carolina, his poor showing in New Hampshire and Michigan showed his candidacy could well be on its last leg of life.  Others who may well be the next to drop out include Kucinich and Gravel, two Democrats who cannot garner more than 1% of Democrats between them, and are even less likely to win over independent or GOP votes.  Kucinich occasionally gets a few points in some primaries, but his claim of seeing a UFO and stances staunchly different than the party cause him to be not so much of a dark horse as a dead horse.  Edwards, now relegated to “kingmaker” status, could drop out now while it might do some good to endorse Obama, whereas in two weeks it may be too late to slow Clinton down.  Most likely though, he will not drop out for at least a month or two.  Huckabee must soon expand his support beyond just evangelicals and strengthen his populist appeal or face political demise.  Romney will be around for quite some time given his fortune and current level of support.

Nader is again exploring a 3rd party candidacy and, after having been kept off the ballots by Democrats in many states legally challenging his right to be on the ballot, may have an axe to grind with them.  He would likely do better than the past two times, but could not win.  Billionaire Bloomberg could also make a run and will likely decide in March as Unity Party 08 continues to try to draft him.  He is exploring the possibility actively.  Last, Gore could be an interesting x factor if he chooses to run, but will most likely wait until 2012 or 2016 to throw his hat in the ring.  A Bloomberg-Gore ticket could be a very powerful combination, but Gore is unlikely to run as a veep again.