08 Presidential Candidates, Political Analysis

With tomorrow being the Michigan primary, there is much on the line, and it appears to be a two candidate race to win the state on each side. 

On the GOP side, Mitt Romney has poured all of his resources, diverting them from other states such as South Carolina and Florida.  He leads McCain 26% - 25%.  After that, Huckabee pulls in third at 17%, Thompson in 4th at 9%, Paul up to 5th at 8%, and Giuliani in 6th at 6%.  Although some have speculated that this is a make or break moment for Romney, I would disagree.  Even if he loses, he still will have been in the top 2 through the first 4 states, the only candidate among the GOP to do so.  A win for John McCain would enable him to carry the momentum he won in New Hampshire and possibly run the table through South Carolina, Florida, and then the February 5th state primaries.  Huckabee focuses on South Carolina, where he trails McCain by 3 points, Thompson focuses on trying to redefine his candidacy with some new life, and Giuliani focuses on Florida.

In South Carolina, it looks to be a McCain victory, as he leads with 28%, Huckabee in 2nd with 19%, Romney in 3rd with 17%, Thompson 4th with 16%, and Paul and Giuliani tied for 5th with 5%.  Also on the 19th, is the Nevada primary where recent polls put it at McCain 22%, Giuliani 18%, Huckabee 16%, Romney 15% and Thompson 11%. 

In Florida, its almost a 4 way tie with McCain, Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani all within 2 points of the lead, and Thompson about 7 points off the pace.

On the Democrats’ side, its all Clinton and Obama, as Edwards fades even more into the status of third horse in a two horse race, despite suggesting Clinton should quit the race just a week and a half ago.  The racial divide between the two candidates is striking, where Clinton holds a 14 point advantage among whites whereas Obama holds a 23 point edge among black voters, a 37 point race gap.  There is not much of a gender gap between the two.  Bill Clinton is trying to do damage control after the Clintons have been widely attacked of inappropriate racial politics.  Hilary Clinton has campaigned in Nevada where she has tried to win over the Hispanic vote.  Obama leads in South Carolina but Clinton crushes him in Florida and California.  Consequently, Obama must win South Carolina.  Michigan’s delegates for the Democrats are not apportioned according to a popular primary vote, and roughly 55% of them have already given their vote to Clinton.