08 Presidential Candidates, Political Analysis

Speaking at a conference hosted by the largest abortion provider and political group Planned Parenthood, the leading Democratic candidates sought to woo the abortion industry who has deep pockets in contributing to each of their campaigns. 

Senator John Edwards vowed to provide universal government funded abortions as part of his health plan.  Also on the government funded health plan, Edwards vowed to provide free contraception.  He and his wife also vowed to provide increased access to over the counter contraception.  That is code for two things.  First, contraceptives that the FDA as listed as dangerous due to deaths and serious injuries to women would be more available and less regulated.  Second, Edwards has long opposed "Conscience Clause" legislation that protects pharmicists, nurses, and other medical professionals to have to provide abortions or abortifacient contraceptives or face losing their jobs.

Senator Barack Obama, in addition to vowing sex education for kindergardners, which would expand the federal and state grants for the abortion provider hosting the conference, also promised to fund abortions on the public fisc as part of his health care plan.

Senator Hilary Clinton did not go so far, but did not say she would not either.  She limited her comments to a critique of Bush's policies on contraception and abortion, thereby reaffirming her support for abortion.

Politically, this is a showdown for the abortion industry money, although their platforms are unprecedented in any previous policy or law.  It will help them with the abortion vote and hurt them with the Pro-Life vote.  In each of the last election cycles, there has been a huge advantage for Pro-Life politicians according to independent exit polls.  Roughly 9% of the voting public base their vote solely on abortion.  Of those 9, there is 7-2 break for the Pro-Life candidates.  That 9% will almost certainly be a larger figure in this election because the next President will almost certainly have the power to determine whether Roe v. Wade is overturned.  It is possible that this 5% or likely higher GOP advantage will disappear though if Giuliani wins the GOP nomination because Pro-Life voters are not likely to support him due to his support for abortion and attacks on them.

In a bizarre bit of news, one of the candidates running for President, indeed the leading fundraiser from either party, announced he believes sex ed for kindergardners is "the right thing to do."  http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2007/07/sex-ed-for-kind.html has the story.

I'm not sure which constituency this pleases, but its likely to rally parents and conservatives against him.  The vast majority of parents do not want sex being taught to their kindergardners.  Obama commented that he meant "age appropriate" sex ed for kindergardners, but did not mention what context might provide sex ed that could be appropriate for kindergarden age children.  Obama did not state whether parents would be allowed to opt their 4 and 5 year olds out of the sex ed program he wants, but did cite Planned Parenthood, the nation's largest abortion provider, as a group that might be able to run the program well.

A "Draft Al Gore" movement is gaining steam.  See http://video1.washingtontimes.com/fishwrap/2007/07/a_draft_al_gore_group_1.html.  Gore will run again for President, whether it be in 2008 or later.  Though he has denied a desire to run, he enjoys immense popular support among environmentalists and the anti-war crowd.  Many people also associate him with the Clinton administration's successes.  He also would draw support from those who want to see the U.S. repair ties with Europe, as he is popular there.  That's all the buzz for now.

New York City Firefighters, the heroes who saved lives and made in many cases the ultimate sacrifice on 9/11, have denounced Rudolph Giuliani as a failure as a leader on 9/11 by failing to react well and provide them with the first responder equipment in advance that they requested which would have saved lives.  See http://wcbstv.com/topstories/local_story_192162447.html for the story.  Also see http://rudy-urbanlegend.com/ for the video and comments of the firefighters who were there and know the full story. 

 This poses a major problem for Giuliani.  Just as Kerry "reported for duty" at the DNC convention in 04 and then was denounced by the Swift Boat Veterans, Giuliani has repeatedly defined himself as a 9/11 hero.  The heroes on the ground on 9/11 have now denounced that claim and called Giuliani a shameless self-promoter and fraud, undeserving of the credit he has received for 9/11.  By contrast, the firefighters are lining up behind Fred Thompson, whose campaign has registered ahead of Giuliani on Rasmussen Reports (perhaps the most highly reliable independent pollster) for nearly a month now.  Anybody would be very hard pressed to deny the credibility of these on the ground heroes.

Giluliani will likely take another big hit in the polls after this.  Thomspon's lead is likely to expand, particularly among GOP voters.  Romney also stands to benefit from this development.  While holding at about 13% in the polls, Romney leads in several states, including early primary states.  Romney has failed to garner much momentum in the polls after the debates, but may stand to steal much of Giuliani's support as Giuliani continues his downward slide.  McCain's top aides are resigning, a tangible sign of a slow death knell that has been sounding on his campaign for some time now.  Giuliani still enjoys some bandwagon support, which could cause a compound polling loss as these charges by the firefighters are further explored.  If Thomspon can get the Firefighter's Union to endorse him, that may give him a huge cross-party appeal lift, and some bandwagon support of his own.

Giuliani still has a few procedural advantages left working to his benefit.  One, he leads in liberal states with many primary delegates, such as Florida, New York, and California.  Second, many of his states have moved their poll date sooner which will help him before he declines too far possibly and give him a stronger showing than he has on average across the country in the early returns.  Third, more GOP state delegate allocations are being moved to systems that allow independents and Democrats to vote, which will allow liberal voters to dilute the strength of the social conservative base which will likely oppose him.  While none of these primary advantages would help him in a general election, they may help him along the way to an unsuccessful nomination.