08 Presidential Candidates, Political Analysis

Former Senator and actor Fred Thompson has opened up a 27% to 23% lead over former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in the GOP primary race.  See http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary.  Last week, Thompson passed Giuliani to take the lead by 1% but had a 5% advantage among registered GOP voters.  This week, the lead is 4% but no mention is made in the Rasmussen Report of how large the advantage is among registered GOP voters.  It is likely also larger, however, than last week's 5% as Rasmussen polls also indicate Thomspon is seen as having a 54% better conservative margin than Giuliani.   See http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/fred_thompson_seen_as_most_conservative_gop_candidate.   McCain's decline continues, Romney held roughly steady, and Huckabee moved into a clear 5th place at 3%.

On the Democratic side, very little has changed.  Hilary Clinton still remains the forerunner with 37% of her party's support.  Obama fell 2 points to 25%.  Edwards fell 3 points to 13%.  The recent Democratic debate, hosted by PBS and moderator Tavis Smiley, can be viewed at http://www.pbs.org/kcet/tavissmiley/special/forums/?campaign=pbshomefeatures_1_allamericanpresidentialforums_2007-06-30. 

Fueling further speculation that Bloomberg may run for the White House in 08 are reports that he has individuals in his camp exploring the possibility.  Bloomberg's exodus from the GOP recently and his liberal social views may siphon support more from the Democratic candidate than the GOP candidate.  Apparently, Bloomberg has ample criticism and little love for his predecessor of his city's mayoral office - Giuliani.  See http://wcbstv.com/topstories/local_story_172165757.html.  Bloomberg criticizes Giuliani for saddling him with a budget running up debts and discontinued many of Giuliani's spending programs.  It is unclear at this time where Bloomberg stands, however, on several major issues, including immigration reform, the war in Iraq, national security, and health care.  Should he move forward, his stance on these issues will likely give a much better idea of what support he could be expected to draw.  He has already staked out positions on social issues, taxing and budgeting, energy policy, and the environment.  At this juncture, he is X-factor #1.

According to Rasmussen Reports, a reliable and reputable independent polling agency, former actor and Senator Fred Thompson has passed former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.  In the latest poll, Thompson polled at 28% to Giuliani's 27%.  While they were tied at 24% a week ago, that poll included former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.  Gingrich never formally declared, and after testing the waters, it appears clear he will not be making a run for the White House in 2008.  The 7% Gingrich was pulling in the polls seems to have split 4-3 for Thompson.  When independent voters who may vote in the GOP primary are not counted and the poll is limited to Republicans, Thompson leads Giuliani by a much more significant margin of 29% to 24%.  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary. 

 Giuliani's continued slide may soon be greatly exacerbated by the possible independent run of another New York City mayor - Michael Bloomberg.  Bloomberg recently left the Republican party but has repeatedly stated he is not considering a run for the Presidency.  While Bloomberg would have no chance at winning, his departure from the Republican party, his personal fortune into the billions, and his unveiling of a national energy plan that far exceeds the scope of his duties as mayor suggest he is considering a run.  Bloomberg has tried to position himself well with environmentalists, and has financed several environmentally friendly projects in New York lately by raising transit costs on tunnels and the subway.  Because of his social values aligning closely with that of Giuliani, he would likely siphon more support from Giuliani than from Thompson, whose continued rise through the polls is likely a reflection of his platforms running in sync with traditional GOP principles.

According to the most recent Rasmussen poll, (a highly reliable and independent polling agency that has most accurately predicted the past few election cycles), former Senator Fred Thompson has caught former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani for the lead in the GOP primary, as each candidate is now pulling 24% of the vote.  See http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary.  McCain's support has continued to drop to 11% as he suffers for his support of an unpopular immigration reform bill.  Romney holds roughly steady at 11%. 

Other polls show that Thompson's entrance to the race is approximately equally siphoning support from each of the other three major candidates.  While the best news of this poll is obviously Thompson's catapulting into the lead, Romney pulling within 13% of the lead is a relative, though modest, gain as well.  Giuliani's loss of the lead perhaps makes him the biggest loser of yet another round of polling, but equally bad is the suffering campaign of John McCain, now down to 11%.

Two very interesting developments besides the polling involve Giuliani and McCain, the two "losers" of this poll.  First, Giuliani continues to harp on national security, which, though the number one issue perhaps among GOP voters, is a hardline that will clearly damage his electability among Democrats.  His recent attacks on the Democrats' "9/10" mentality helps him to tread water among the GOP base, but is costing him ground on the left.  Since he long benefitted from the perception that because he is liberal he'd appeal to Democrats, that support may hurt his long term strategy.

Second, McCain has recently wooed the San Francisco voting base, citing his commitment to environmental issues among other things.  This is an extremely strange development for a GOP candidate, especially one who is losing his front-runner status.  The GOP does not do well nor will it do well in San Francisco anytime in the foreseeable future.  Pair this development with his media-labeled "maverick" history and recent support of the immigration reform bill, more such developments may lead to speculation of his becoming an independent candidacy.  To rebut this thesis, McCain has staked a very conservative position on Iraq, to the right of most candidates, which is very unpopular with the left.