08 Presidential Candidates, Political Analysis

Fred Thompson, actor from the TV show Law & Order and former Senator from Tennessee, now has the backing of several of Reagan's top men.  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/04/29/wus29.xml  Thompson is running a populist campaign, hitting all the GOP traditional platforms.  He's Pro-Life, Pro-Second Amendment, a strong tough foreign policy, a federalist, etc.  This affiliation with Reagan's top political aides shows he is definitely going to run, even though he has not formally announced.  His groundswell of support can largely be attributed to his traditional platforms positioning himself as someone who can unite all the constituencies of the GOP coalition. 

He has some answers to give, however, as there is at least one known skeleton in his closet.  He took a position when running for Senate in a 1992 election to fill Al Gore's vacated seat where he said that though he is Pro-Life, he did not believe in criminalization of those involved in abortions.  He said that he wanted and believed we would get to the point where we would no longer have abortions.  This, though called Pro-Life by him, is certainly not a Pro-Life position.  If he has had a change of heart over the years, or needs to clarify what he meant in that increasingly circulated YouTube video, he will need to explain himself.  If he cannot provide adequate explanations, his values base populist support will likely dissipate.

See http://www.thestreet.com/funds/followmoney/10352573.html for an interesting look at who is getting campaign money from whom.  Although Democrats are largely outraising the GOP, and Senator Obama has "stolen" many of the donors that Senator Clinton was thought to be able to capture, the feature of the story is ex-mayor Giuliani getting money from the "vice" groups more than any other candidate.  He is the favorite of big tobacco, the casinos and gambling bookies.  He has raised $94,900 from the latter two, more than double any other candidate.  One of his top contributors is the Las Vegas Fertitta family, owner of Station Casinos.  Giuliani got more than double the money of any other candidate from big oil.  Although not mentioned in the above article, he has also received huge amounts of money from the abortion industry

This week, at Boston College University, Senator Sam Brownback (R) of Kansas and Senator Christopher Dodd (D) of Connecticut debated and discussed the influence of their Catholic faith on their political lives.  NBC's Tim Russert, also a Catholic, and host of Meet the Press, moderated.  I will try to locate a transcript for this debate as well as the recent Democratic primary debate as soon as possible.  Social issues such as abortion, gay marriage, etc. were discussed as well as foreign policy on the war on terror and Iraq.

Last night, eight Democratic primary candidates each took a separate jet from Washington to South Carolina, raising criticism that they needlessly wasted money and fuel thereby making them financially irresponsible and environmentally hypocritical.  The jets cost anywhere from $7,000 to $9,000 per chartered flight.  This type of financial criticism has been leveled recently against Senator John Edwards for paying out of his campaign fund a series of $400 haircuts, leaving small donors feeling angered.  Edwards has since reimbursed the haircut money to his campaign chest from his personal funds.  http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/wire/sns-ap-campaign-planes,0,4666247,print.story?coll=sns-ap-politics-headlines

The debate itself is being billed as tame.  The Democrats took few swipes at their fellow Democratic primary rivals and focused on criticizing President Bush.  Alaskan State Senator Mike Gravel pronounced the United States the largest violator of the non-proliferation treaty.  Gravel was given equal speaking time at the debate despite saving less than $500 in his war chest through the campaign.   He also asked Senator Obama who he was going to nuke.  Another third tier primary candidate, Dennis Kucinich, insisted that anytime you vote to provide funding for the war, you reauthorize the war.  This too, is non-controversial among Democratic candidates as Senators Biden, Clinton, Obama, and Edwards all voted to cut funding for the war earlier in the day.  http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/04/26/crowley.dem.post.debate/index.html

UPDATE:  USAToday Poll has Obama as the winner of the debate with 31%, Clinton in 2nd with 24%, Edwards 3rd with 14%.  Obama did more than twice as well among Independents.  Biggest two issues of the debate were Iraq and gun control.  http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=ba1ebc70-a734-4185-8532-2e4a9ba45d96

UPDATE #2:  Candidates were NOT given equal speaking time by MSNBC.  Though their stage positions were determined by random drawing, the leading candidates coincidentally were on center stage while weak candidates such as Kucinich and Gravel were on the wings and often off camera.  Gravel protested at one point that the moderator was giving him so little time that he was being treated as a "potted plant." 

Following recent criticism from supporters and possible surrogates of Senator John McCain that ex-mayor Giuliani was showing no real leadership on Iraq or taking any kind of stand, Giuliani attacked Democrats as having a "pre-9/11 mentality" when it comes to defense of our nation.  He criticized in particular their eagerness to surrender in Iraq, their opposition of the Patriot Act, and their opposition to electronic monitoring.  He concluded that Democrats do not understand the scope of the war on terror.  He then segued into arguing that the terrorists hate us for our "freedoms" and promising we would never surrender.  http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0407/3689.html  Giuliani stated any Republican would do a better job than the Democrats, but that he believed he would do the best job.

Leading Democrat candidates were angered by Giuliani's remarks and Senator Obama went as far as to call them "a new low."  Obama also made headlines today upon the Democrats' passage of a bill calling for a pullout from Iraq and launching a preemptive attack upon President Bush's promised veto, stating "we are one signature away from ending this war."  Senator Clinton observed, "[t]here are people right now in the world, not just wishing us harm but actively planning and plotting to cause us harm," and contended that such "political rhetoric" will not quell the threat.

There will be debate among Democratic primary candidates tonight, hosted by MSNBC and South Carolina State University.  After leading Democrats refused to debate in the Black Caucus / Fox News sponsored debate, including Senators Clinton, Edwards and Obama, as demanded by the liberal interest group moveon.org, they are going to debate after all.

The eight participating candidates include Senator Clinton, Senator Edwards, Senator Obama, Senator Dodd, Senator Biden, Rep. Kucinich, Alaskan State Senator Mike Gravel, and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson.  This may be a major shifting point for the party for one candidate or another.

Clinton's support among African-Americans has been greatly dissipated by Barack Obama's candidacy.  It is no secret she has attempted to recapture that voting segment, from trips to Selma, Alabama to commemorate the civil rights movement, (right after Obama made the trip to Selma) to her proclamation of the Rutgers' womens' basketball team as heroes.  A year or two after her joke that Mahatma Gandhi, one of the world's greatest peace leaders of the past century, as "Didn't he run some gas station in St. Louis?", Senator Clinton's racial politics problems continue.  See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/04/hillarys_reverse_sister_soulja.html. 

Some supporters of Arizona Senator John McCain (R) are calling out Rudy Giuliani on Iraq.  Their argument is simple - Iraq is the number one issue in politics right now and Giuliani refuses to take a clear position on it.  This they contrast to McCain's clear, though sometimes unpopular, stances on Iraq, McCain's visits to Iraq and the troops, and clear foreign policy philosophy.  Particular irony is noted that Giuliani refuses to touch this "third rail" of politics right now while billing himself as a "leadership" candidate.