Long overdue update
Since I last posted, much has happened in the 2008 Presidential race. In short, Mick Huckabee has taken over the top of the GOP field, Fred Thompson's numbers have plummeted, Giuliani remains a top tier contender, Mitt Romney has risen significantly, Brownback bowed out, McCain has stagnated as a second tier candidate and Obama, with Oprah's help, has significantly but not entirely closed the gap on Hilary Clinton.
The first primaries are next month, with the big three early states being Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
On the GOP side, the only state Huckabee is not winning among these early primary states is NH. There the numbers, according to Rasmussen Reports, an outfit with traditionally dead on polling statistics, indicate a huge Romney lead. This is close to Romney's base of support where he was Governor of Massachussetts. He has 33% support, McCain trails at 18%, Giuliani has 15%, and Huckabee 14%. In terms of solidity of support, a measure of what percentage of voters are certain to vote for the candidate they currently indicate as their first choice, Romney leads in New Hampshire as well, suggesting he will win this primary. Huckabee is a close second in this category, while Giuliani and McCain follow at a fair distance behind.
On the Dems side, Obama now leads Clinton, 31 to 28 in New Hampshire. Edwards is 3rd in a two horse race at 17%, and nobody else cracks 10%. Clinton's supporters are more committed than Obama's, however, so this race is a toss up.
In Iowa, its all Mike Huckabee, who has 39% of the support. Romney has 23%, and neither Giuliani nor McCain even cracks double digits. Looking at the "second choice" of voters, Huckabee and Romney each get another 19%, Thompson gets 16%, and Giuliani only gets 12%. That not even 1/5 of his own party would even consider voting for him as one of the top two choices in Iowa and the low certainty of those who are currently supporting him there may indicate why Giuliani has chosen to focus his efforts elsewhere. Still, of the 3 early primary states of New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina, Iowa is the only one that is a "swing state" that may vote for either party in the general election. NH will go for the Democrats and South Carolina will go for the GOP.
On the Dems side, Iowa is close. Clinton leads with 29%, Obama is a close second at 26%, and Edwards is hanging in there at 22%. Edwards numbers are boosted by his support infrastructure in Iowa that he built up in the 2004 campaign season. Anyone of these three could still pull off Iowa, but most likely it will be Clinton or Obama. Lately, the momentum has been working in Obama's favor.
In South Carolina, its again Mike Huckabee with a strong lead at 25%, Romney and Thompson at a respectable 18%, and Giuliani a distant 4th at 12%.
On the Dems side, it is a runaway two horse race in South Carolina, where Clinton edges Obama 36%-34%, and Edwards is a distant third at 13%. Still, all the momentum seems to be on Obama's side as he has gone from a distant second to within the margin of error over the past month. If his momentum continues as it has for another month, he will certainly win all three of these states in the primary.
Nationally, Huckabee leads the GOP field, having also taken over the lead in Florida and Michigan, major states where Giuliani had until recently been leading. In Florida, its now Huckabee 27%, Romney 23%, and Giuliani 19%. The nationwide poll puts Huckabee at 23%, Giuliani at 19%, Romney at 15%, with McCain and Thompson at 11%. Romney, Huckabee and Thomspon are viewed "favorably" with 70% plus of voters liking them, McCain is in the low 60s, and Giuliani is viewed fairly disfavorably at in the mid-50s.
On the Dems side, its Clinton with 38% and Obama with 27%. This is still a sizeable lead for Clinton, but if Obama pulls off the early primary states, it is likely that will give him a national boost. Edwards is a distant 3rd at 14%. The favorables for Obama are astronomical among Democrats, at 84%. Both Clinton and Edwards are high, in the 70s. Richardson has moderate favorability, Biden's is low in the high 50s, and Kucinich is way down in the 40s.
One anomaly that stands out in these numbers is Giuliani's level of national support versus his comparatively low favorability ratings. Unlike most candidates, the two do not correspond. Giuliani is liked by Republicans somewhere in between the Democrats level of favorability with Dennis Kucinich and Joe Biden, and is the second choice of very few GOPers. He has, however, a bastion of support who put him as their first choice from 19%. Even those 19%, according to poll data, are not as committed as Huckabee's 23% or Romney's 15%. The momentum also seems to be working against him lately, yet he has showed some resilience from the Thompson surge. Many of the Giuliani supporters support him for his electability, which is becoming increasingly supsect in the poll numbers, for his 9/11 reputation - which has been under constant attack, and his campaign theme to be strong on the war on terror. Given that we are at war, however, it is quite possible that he will lose further ground to Huckabee on this latter count given that Huckabee has served in the military, and been a POW, whereas Giuliani has not served. This fact also puts Huckabee in a good position to win over some of the military support that has sustained McCain's long stagnant 10-12% campaign should he drop out after not winning any of the early primaries.
Former Governor Romney's prediction that Giuliani would not pick up as many votes as the other candidates as some begin to drop out is well-founded. My prediction then is that Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, and Huckabee and Romney each perform much better than the others in South Carolina. Their numbers will both shoot up. Thompson, Giuliani, and McCain will likely drop in the polls sharply. There is a strong chance that Giuliani, if he falls one to two more points in New Hampshire, will not crack the top three in any of the first three states. If that happens, his funding and support will likely see significant drops.
The first primaries are next month, with the big three early states being Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
On the GOP side, the only state Huckabee is not winning among these early primary states is NH. There the numbers, according to Rasmussen Reports, an outfit with traditionally dead on polling statistics, indicate a huge Romney lead. This is close to Romney's base of support where he was Governor of Massachussetts. He has 33% support, McCain trails at 18%, Giuliani has 15%, and Huckabee 14%. In terms of solidity of support, a measure of what percentage of voters are certain to vote for the candidate they currently indicate as their first choice, Romney leads in New Hampshire as well, suggesting he will win this primary. Huckabee is a close second in this category, while Giuliani and McCain follow at a fair distance behind.
On the Dems side, Obama now leads Clinton, 31 to 28 in New Hampshire. Edwards is 3rd in a two horse race at 17%, and nobody else cracks 10%. Clinton's supporters are more committed than Obama's, however, so this race is a toss up.
In Iowa, its all Mike Huckabee, who has 39% of the support. Romney has 23%, and neither Giuliani nor McCain even cracks double digits. Looking at the "second choice" of voters, Huckabee and Romney each get another 19%, Thompson gets 16%, and Giuliani only gets 12%. That not even 1/5 of his own party would even consider voting for him as one of the top two choices in Iowa and the low certainty of those who are currently supporting him there may indicate why Giuliani has chosen to focus his efforts elsewhere. Still, of the 3 early primary states of New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina, Iowa is the only one that is a "swing state" that may vote for either party in the general election. NH will go for the Democrats and South Carolina will go for the GOP.
On the Dems side, Iowa is close. Clinton leads with 29%, Obama is a close second at 26%, and Edwards is hanging in there at 22%. Edwards numbers are boosted by his support infrastructure in Iowa that he built up in the 2004 campaign season. Anyone of these three could still pull off Iowa, but most likely it will be Clinton or Obama. Lately, the momentum has been working in Obama's favor.
In South Carolina, its again Mike Huckabee with a strong lead at 25%, Romney and Thompson at a respectable 18%, and Giuliani a distant 4th at 12%.
On the Dems side, it is a runaway two horse race in South Carolina, where Clinton edges Obama 36%-34%, and Edwards is a distant third at 13%. Still, all the momentum seems to be on Obama's side as he has gone from a distant second to within the margin of error over the past month. If his momentum continues as it has for another month, he will certainly win all three of these states in the primary.
Nationally, Huckabee leads the GOP field, having also taken over the lead in Florida and Michigan, major states where Giuliani had until recently been leading. In Florida, its now Huckabee 27%, Romney 23%, and Giuliani 19%. The nationwide poll puts Huckabee at 23%, Giuliani at 19%, Romney at 15%, with McCain and Thompson at 11%. Romney, Huckabee and Thomspon are viewed "favorably" with 70% plus of voters liking them, McCain is in the low 60s, and Giuliani is viewed fairly disfavorably at in the mid-50s.
On the Dems side, its Clinton with 38% and Obama with 27%. This is still a sizeable lead for Clinton, but if Obama pulls off the early primary states, it is likely that will give him a national boost. Edwards is a distant 3rd at 14%. The favorables for Obama are astronomical among Democrats, at 84%. Both Clinton and Edwards are high, in the 70s. Richardson has moderate favorability, Biden's is low in the high 50s, and Kucinich is way down in the 40s.
One anomaly that stands out in these numbers is Giuliani's level of national support versus his comparatively low favorability ratings. Unlike most candidates, the two do not correspond. Giuliani is liked by Republicans somewhere in between the Democrats level of favorability with Dennis Kucinich and Joe Biden, and is the second choice of very few GOPers. He has, however, a bastion of support who put him as their first choice from 19%. Even those 19%, according to poll data, are not as committed as Huckabee's 23% or Romney's 15%. The momentum also seems to be working against him lately, yet he has showed some resilience from the Thompson surge. Many of the Giuliani supporters support him for his electability, which is becoming increasingly supsect in the poll numbers, for his 9/11 reputation - which has been under constant attack, and his campaign theme to be strong on the war on terror. Given that we are at war, however, it is quite possible that he will lose further ground to Huckabee on this latter count given that Huckabee has served in the military, and been a POW, whereas Giuliani has not served. This fact also puts Huckabee in a good position to win over some of the military support that has sustained McCain's long stagnant 10-12% campaign should he drop out after not winning any of the early primaries.
Former Governor Romney's prediction that Giuliani would not pick up as many votes as the other candidates as some begin to drop out is well-founded. My prediction then is that Huckabee wins Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire, and Huckabee and Romney each perform much better than the others in South Carolina. Their numbers will both shoot up. Thompson, Giuliani, and McCain will likely drop in the polls sharply. There is a strong chance that Giuliani, if he falls one to two more points in New Hampshire, will not crack the top three in any of the first three states. If that happens, his funding and support will likely see significant drops.
