Fred Thompson catches Rudolph Giuliani in GOP primary
According to the most recent Rasmussen poll, (a highly reliable and independent polling agency that has most accurately predicted the past few election cycles), former Senator Fred Thompson has caught former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani for the lead in the GOP primary, as each candidate is now pulling 24% of the vote. See http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_republican_presidential_primary. McCain's support has continued to drop to 11% as he suffers for his support of an unpopular immigration reform bill. Romney holds roughly steady at 11%.
Other polls show that Thompson's entrance to the race is approximately equally siphoning support from each of the other three major candidates. While the best news of this poll is obviously Thompson's catapulting into the lead, Romney pulling within 13% of the lead is a relative, though modest, gain as well. Giuliani's loss of the lead perhaps makes him the biggest loser of yet another round of polling, but equally bad is the suffering campaign of John McCain, now down to 11%.
Two very interesting developments besides the polling involve Giuliani and McCain, the two "losers" of this poll. First, Giuliani continues to harp on national security, which, though the number one issue perhaps among GOP voters, is a hardline that will clearly damage his electability among Democrats. His recent attacks on the Democrats' "9/10" mentality helps him to tread water among the GOP base, but is costing him ground on the left. Since he long benefitted from the perception that because he is liberal he'd appeal to Democrats, that support may hurt his long term strategy.
Second, McCain has recently wooed the San Francisco voting base, citing his commitment to environmental issues among other things. This is an extremely strange development for a GOP candidate, especially one who is losing his front-runner status. The GOP does not do well nor will it do well in San Francisco anytime in the foreseeable future. Pair this development with his media-labeled "maverick" history and recent support of the immigration reform bill, more such developments may lead to speculation of his becoming an independent candidacy. To rebut this thesis, McCain has staked a very conservative position on Iraq, to the right of most candidates, which is very unpopular with the left.
