08 Presidential Candidates, Political Analysis

Senator Joe Lieberman, the once Democrat now Independent Senator from Connecticut, has warned that an independent candidate could shake up the 2008 Presidential race.  http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/blogs/politicalticker/

Independent candidates have potential to play a spoiler role by dividing one base or the other.  In 2000 and 2004, Ralph Nader was criticized by the Democrats for splitting their vote.  His response was that they did not own voters.  In 2004, Democrats used a series of procedural tactics and courtroom maneuvers to force Nader off the ballot in many states.  Though Nader usually registered only 0-3% of the vote in most states, and siphoned off support fairly evenly from the two parties, some Democrats blame him for delivering the elections to George W. Bush.  In 1992, billionaire Ross Perot launched a campaign that siphoned off predominantly GOP support, sending incumbent President George Bush down in defeat to President Bill Clinton. 

A few possible independents who could shake things up this time through include Nader of course, as well as Senator Lieberman and New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg, also a billionaire.  It would be impossible for any of them to win, of course.  Bloomberg would likely siphon off GOP support to some extent, especially if Giuliani were the nominee, as their stances on social issues are very similar.  Nader's support would likely continue to be the same as it has these past few cycles. 

Lieberman, noting in the above article that the fastest growing party affiliation in America is no party, already wields great power with his position in Washington due to the balance of power in the Senate.  The Democrats control the Senate with 49 Senators and two Independents, including Lieberman, who caucus with them.  If Lieberman were to switch parties, the GOP would then have 50 Senators and could break all ties in votes with Vice President Cheney's vote.  In the recent 2006 Senate election, Lieberman's Democratic Senate colleagues all abandoned him and endorsed his rival Ned Lamont.  Lieberman was forced out of the party and now stands at odds with the party over the Democrats' desire to pull out of Iraq.  Lieberman is a strong advocate of the United States staying in Iraq and finishing the job and has even written editorials criticizing his party's leadership.  Though such a change in party affiliation is unlikely, it is seeming more plausible than it used to.  Now Lieberman's comments on an Independent candidate should give Democrats more pause in considering Lieberman.  He had been the Vice Presidential candidate of the Democratic party in 2000, so it is not beyond the realm of possibility he could run for President either.  He would likely split off many Democratic voters who do not share the party's emerging stance on Iraq.